As Teslas biggest bear, Johnson has taken abuse for years from bullish analysts and investors for arguing that Elon Musks EV giant is overvalued.

The bulls point to booming EV sales and potential growth drivers like self-driving advancements and battery storage technology as evidence that Tesla stock will eventually become the most valuable on Earth. But with shares down over 70% in the past 12 months, some Tesla investors are beginning to heed Johnsons warnings.

Weve been saying this all along, but nobody wanted to listen, the CEO of GLJ Research told Fortune on Tuesday. Its just a car company that cant sell its capacity.

Tesla managed to deliver 40% more cars last year than it did in 2021, but the company still missed its vehicle delivery target for the full year 2022. And Johnson believes that Teslas latest deliveries miss is just a preview of whats to come. 

He argues that the companys lead times, how long it takes customers to get their vehicles, and backlog, the number of orders waiting to be filled, have dropped dramatically in recent weeks, revealing demand weakness.

Their actual new orders were around 250,000 cars in the fourth quarter. Thats down quarter-over-quarter and down year-over-year, Johnson said. Yet its valued as if its hyper growth. That is why the stock is imploding.

Wedbushs Dan Ives still believes Tesla stock will rise to $175 per share, or roughly 60% from current levels, on the back of continued sales growth. 

But Johnson argues Musks golden child will fall to just $24.33 per share by the end of 2023 as investors recognize that it has built too much capacity. That represents a potential 75% plus drop from Tuesdays closing price.

False promises and a rich valuation

Tesla isnt Elon Musks only company, and his other ventures have worried some analysts in recent weeks.  

Musks $44 billion Twitter acquisition has been the subject of a heated debate among analysts, with some arguing that the purchase, along with Musks sales to fund it, have hurt share prices and Teslas brand.

But Johnson said that he believes Teslas real issue is a more long-term growth problem that makes its current valuation illogical.

Wall Street is expecting 35% to 40% delivery growth next year, but Johnson argues Tesla wont come anywhere close to that unless it cuts pricesand the company has already instituted multiple price cuts in the U.S. and China. At the end of December, they went so far as to offer customers a $7,500 discount on two major car models if they bought them before the end of the year. 

This is a company thats valued for tremendous growth, Johnson said. Theyre valued at around two times Toyota. Toyota sells 11 million cars a year; Tesla sells 1.3 million cars a year. So if theyre valued at double Toyota, then they should be growing significantly, right? But theyre not.

Johnson also argued that promises from bullish analysts and Elon Musk that Tesla will find new opportunities for growth in areas outside of EV sales should be met with suspicion. He noted that Musk has made false promises before, including saying Tesla would have one million Robo taxis on the road by 2020 and that the CyberTruck would begin deliveries in 2021.

Do you see a pattern here? he said, warning investors not to get sucked into stories and instead focus on real developments.

Finally, Johnson said that, despite Teslas 70% plus drop over the past 12 months, short interest in the companyor the amount of investors betting against the stockis still low, which could create problems as the stock falls.

Basically, theres nobody short, he explained. And the reason thats important, is because when stocks start to fall, typically, theres a lot of short interest. And when those shorts cover that creates a buying cushion that helps stop the fall. Theres no cushion here. Thats a big problem if youre a long Tesla.

Tesla did not immediately respond to Fortunes request for comment. The company dissolved its PR department several years ago.

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Needing 218 votes in the full House, McCarthy got just 203 in both rounds less even than Democrat Hakeem Jeffries in the GOP-controlled chamber.

McCarthy had pledged a battle on the floor for as long as it took to overcome right-flank fellow Republicans who were refusing to give him their votes. But it was not at all clear how the embattled GOP leader could rebound after becoming the first House speaker nominee in 100 years to fail to win the gavel from his fellow party members on the initial vote.

Before the second vote, rival-turned-McCarthy ally, conservative Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who got six votes in the first round, rose to urge his colleagues, even those who backed him as an alternative, to drop their opposition.

We have to rally around him, come together Jordan said of McCarthy.

But Rep Matt Gaetz of Florida followed with a vigorous re-endorsement of Jordan. underscoring the chaos within the party.

I rise to nominate the most talented, hardest working member of the Republican conference, who just gave a speech with more vision that we have ever heard from the alternative, Gaetz said.

Jordan got 19 votes in the second round.

Smiling through it all, McCarthy huddled briefly with aides then appeared intent on simply trying to wear down his colleagues. Earlier, he strode into the chamber, posed for photos, and received a standing ovation from many on his side of the aisle after being nominated by the third-ranking Republican, Rep. Elise Stefanik, who said the Californian from gritty Bakersfield has what it takes to lead House Republicans.

No one has worked harder for this majority than Kevin McCarthy, said Stefanik, R-N.Y.

But on that first vote a challenge was quickly raised by Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., a conservative former leader of the Freedom Caucus, who was nominated by a fellow conservative as speaker. In all, 19 Republicans peeled away, denying McCarthy the majority he needs as they cast votes for Biggs, Jordan or others in protest.

The mood was tense, at least on the Republican side, as lawmakers rose from their seats, in a lengthy first round of in-person voting. Democrats were joyous as they cast their own historic votes for their leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

In the final first-round tally, McCarthy won 203 votes, with 10 for Biggs and nine for other Republicans. Jeffries, the Democratic leader, won the most, 212 votes. But no nominee won a majority.

After a raucous private GOP meeting, a core group of conservatives led by the Freedom Caucus and aligned with Donald Trumps MAGA agenda were furious, calling the meeting a beat down by McCarthy allies and remaining steadfast in their opposition to the GOP leader.

Theres one person who could have changed all this, said Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., the chairman of the Freedom Caucus and a leader of Trumps effort to challenge the 2020 presidential election.

The group said McCarthy refused the groups last-ditch offer for rules changes in a meeting late Monday at the Capitol.

If you want to drain the swamp you cant put the biggest alligator in control of the exercise, said Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

He eagerly dismissed us, said Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo.

Lawmakers convened in a new era of divided government as Democrats relinquish control of the House after midterm election losses. While the Senate remains in Democratic hands, barely, House Republicans are eager to confront President Joe Bidens agenda after two years of a Democratic Party control of both houses of Congress.

Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gaveled closed the last session, moving aside for new House leadership in her Democratic Party, to a standing ovation from colleagues on her side of the aisle.

The chaplain opened with a prayer seeking to bring the 118th Congress to life.

But first, House Republicans had to elect a speaker, second in succession to the presidency.

Even with an endorsement from former President Trump, McCarthy fell short.

Democrats enthusiastically nominated Jeffries, D-.N.Y., who is taking over as party leader, as their choice for speaker a typically symbolic gesture in the minority but one that took on new importance as Republicans were in disarray.

A Latino is nominating in this chamber a Black man for our leader for the the first time in American history, said Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the third-ranking Democrat, in nominating his colleague.

A new generation of Trump-aligned Republicans led the opposition to McCarthy. They dont think he is conservative enough or tough enough to battle Democrats. Its reminiscent of the last time Republicans took back the House majority, after the 2010 midterms, when the tea-party class ushered in a new era of hardball politics, eventually sending Speaker John Boehner to an early retirement.

Nothings changed, said Rep. Bob Good, R-Va. The problem is Kevin McCarthy.

With just 222 GOP seats, McCarthy could afford to lose only a handful of their votes. A speaker can win with fewer than 218 votes, as Pelosi and Boehner did, if some lawmakers are absent or simply vote present.

But McCarthy has failed to win over a core and potentially growing group of right-flank Republicans led by the conservative Freedom Caucus, despite weeks of closed-door meetings and promised changes to the House rules.

Some of the staunch Republican conservatives challenged McCarthy in the private session. He pushed back, according to a Republican in the room and granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door session.

A sizable but less vocal group of McCarthy supporters started theirs own campaign, Only Kevin, as a way to shut down the opposition and pledge their support only to him.

Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., a leader of a more pragmatic conservative group, said frustration was rising with the minority faction.

A viable challenger to McCarthy had yet to emerge.

The second-ranking House Republican, Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, could be a next choice, a conservative widely liked by his colleagues and seen by some as a hero after surviving a gunshot wound suffered during a congressional baseball game practice in 2017.

Once rivals, McCarthy and Scalise have become a team. Scalises office rejected as false a suggestion Monday by another Republican that Scalise was making calls about the speakers race.

A speakers contest last went multiple rounds in 1923.

This is a lot more important than about one person, said Doug Heye, a former Republican leadership senior aide. Its about whether Republicans will be able to govern.

Without a speaker, the House cannot fully form naming its committee chairmen, engaging in floor proceedings and launching investigations of the Biden administration.

It was all in stark contrast to the other side of the Capitol, where Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell will officially become the chambers longest-serving party leader in history.

Despite being in the minority in the Senate, where Democrats hold a slim 51-49 majority, McConnell could prove to be a viable partner as Biden seeks bipartisan victories in the new era of divided government. The two men were expected to appear together later in the week in the GOP leaders home state of Kentucky to celebrate federal infrastructure investment in a vital bridge that connects Kentucky and Ohio.

McCarthys candidacy for speaker should have been an almost sure thing. He led his party into the majority, raising millions of campaign dollars and traveling the country to recruit many of the newer lawmakers to run for office.

Yet McCarthy has been here before, abruptly dropping out of the speakers race in 2015 when it was clear he did not have support from conservatives to replace Boehner.

One core demand from the holdouts this time is that McCarthy reinstate a rule that allows any single lawmaker to make a motion to vacate the chair in short, to call a vote to remove the speaker from office.

Pelosi eliminated the rule after conservatives used it to threaten Boehners ouster, but McCarthy agreed to add it back in but at a higher threshold, requiring at least five lawmakers to sign on to the motion. Conservatives said it was insufficient.

If you were informed that your job is among those impacted by a mass layoff, its important to create a plan right away so you can prepare for the major financial changes that come with being laid off. 

5 things to do with your money when youre laid off

Certain businessessuch as those who employ 100+ workersare required to provide employees a minimum of 60 days notice that their role will be impacted by a mass layoff or plant closing under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. The hope in providing advance notice is that employees have time to prepare themselves financially in the event they are unemployed for a period of time. 

Some of the best ways to manage your money after a layoff include contacting your human resources department for available severance packages, filing for unemployment to supplement your emergency savings, and having a strategy for dealing with your insurance and 401(k) plans. Its also important to review your current spending habits and cut back unnecessary purchases while you are without income. 

Contact HR 

When you are laid off, your employer will inform you whether you will be entitled to a severance package which outlines the financial terms of your termination. This general includes severance pay and benefits based on how long you were employed by your company before you were laid off. It also may include unused paid time off or assistance in finding a new job. 

Most employees are unaware that severance packages can be negotiated the same way an employment offer can be. For instance, if you believe you are entitled to a larger severance payment than your company is offering, you may make a request to increase the payout. Your employer has the option to agree to your offer or hold firm on their original payout amount. 

Its important to throroughly review your severance package and understand the terms of the agreement before accepting it. Accepting your severance agreement may waive your right to file a wrongful termination suit or file for unemployment insurance. Typically, you will have up to 21 days to accept the agreement. 

Its important to note that there is no federal or state law that requires employers to provide employees with a severance packageunless you belong to a union or your employment contract states otherwise. 

File for unemployment insurance

If you are laid off, unemployment insurance can help supplement your emergency savings while you look for a new job. It may take up to several weeks for your state to approve your application, so it is important to apply as soon as possible once you know your role will be terminated.

Unemployment insurance eligibility requirements and application approval timelines vary depending on which state you reside in, but it is typical for states to require you to have worked for a minimum amount of time or made a minimum amount of income to qualify. Your state may also use this information to calculate how much benefit you qualify for. 

Most states provide unemployment benefits for up to 26 weeks and require you to file a weekly claim to continue receiving payments. Some states may also have additional qualification requirements, including requiring that you are actively looking for new employment while you receive the benefit. Review your states eligibility requirements before applying. 

Update your insurance plans

If your insurance plans are through your employer, your insurance benefits typically end when you are laid off. 

To combat this, the federal government created the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (COBRA) to provide extended access to your previous employers healthcare plan for a limited time after you are laid off, usually lasting up to 36 months. But, you are required to pay a premium and an additional 2% administrative fee to qualify for insurance under COBRA, which usually is more expensive than a typical insurance plan. 

Instead of paying high fees to extend your current coverage, you may be eligible to enroll in coverage under the Affordable Care Act, which typically offers lower premiums based on your income level. You may also qualify for coverage under a spouses plan or parents planif you are under 26 years old. 

Review your 401(k) plan

There are several options to consider when evaluating what to do with your 401(k) plan when you are laid off, including leaving the funds in your current plan, rolling your plan over to a new employer or IRA, or cashing out entirely. Depending on which you choose, there may be additional tax implications.  

Stick with your current plan: If you have $5,000 or more in your 401(k) plan, you may be able to leave the funds in your current plan. Even though you are allowed to keep the plan, you will no longer be able to contribute or withdraw funds until you hit age 72, which is when you will be required to take minimum distributions from the plan regardless of your employment or retirement status. 

This means you will have to open a new 401(k) plan or IRA if you want to continue saving towards retirement. Additionally, you will not be able to dip into your retirement savings if you face financial turmoil while you are laid off.  

Roll over your plan to a new employer: If you find a new job after being laid off, you can roll over your previous employers plan into your new employers plan relatively easily by contacting your previous plans administrator and completing required paperwork, says Amy Hamasaki, certified financial planner at Mountain Wealth Planning. 

Its important to note that your new 401(k) plan may have different rules, investment options, and fees. Review your new employers plan thoroughly to ensure it aligns your investment needs before deciding to rollover your funds. 

Roll over your plan to an IRA: If you dont want to use your new employers 401(k) plan or they do not offer one, you can transfer your retirement savings into an IRA by contacting your previous plans administrator and requesting they disburse the funds to your IRA administrator. 

You can choose between a Roth IRA and Traditional IRA, but there may be additional tax consequences in doing so. For instance, if your retirement savings have been growing tax deferred in your traditional 401(k) plan, a Roth IRA rollover would be considered a taxable event. 

Cash out your plan: If you do not have an emergency savings built up and are in immediate need of cash, you may be able to cash out the funds from your 401(k). But, this should be a last resort after evaluating other alternatives since you will be required to pay ordinary income taxes on the funds and an additional 10% early withdrawal penalty if you have not reached age 59 . 

You also lose out on any compounding interest you would have accumulated if the funds remained invested in a retirement account and will adversely affect your overall retirement savings in the long run. If you cash out of a 401(k), it is going to take you a lot longer to catch up to where you once were, says Hamasaki. 

Dial back on spending 

Create a simple budget and stick to it. If you are living off of your emergency savings or a variable income to support you following a layoff, you should review your expenses and break them down into three major categories to help you dial back on unnecessary spending. 

Must-haves: A significant portion of your budget should be allocated to paying your bills, which include your mortgage or rent payments, utilities, food, gas, minimum loan payments, and insurance. This also includes student loan payments, which are currently on pause until no later than June 30, 2023. 

In other words, your must-haves include your fixed expenses that you pay every month. These expenses should be your main priority, especially if you have limited funds. 

Wants: A smaller portion of your budget may go toward paying for things you want, such as traveling home to visit your family during the holidays or purchasing a new outfit to attend a job interview. But you should reduce the amount you typically spend on discretionary expenses if you have recently been laid off. 

Were really focusing on paying off the fixed expenses first because when the sky is falling down, you want to really tighten your belt a little bit, says Hamasaki. This might mean eating in instead of going out to lavish restaurants or readjusting your holiday shopping plans. 

Savings and paying off debt: If you do not have a job lined up, you may need to stretch your emergency savings to last a longer period of time while you search for a new role. If this is the case, it may be beneficial to put any excess back into your savings for a later date. Additionally, if you have credit card or consumer loan debt, you might want to make additional payments beyond your minimum payment to reduce interest charges. 

If your budget allows, consider following the 50/30/20 rule which allocates 50% of your after-tax income to must have expenses, 30% on wants, and 20% on savings or paying down debt. 

For instance, lets say you have 6 months of expenses saved up in your emergency savings, totalling $4,000 per month. You should spend $2,000 on your fixed expenses, $1,200 on wants, and $800 on savings or paying down debt.

The takeaway 

If your employer has given you advance notice that your job will be impacted by a mass layoff, its important to create a financial plan right away so you can be prepared for the changes that come along with losing your job. 

Thoroughly review your severance package and dont be afraid to negotiate the terms, such as requesting an extension of your health insurance benefits to avoid paying high premiums under COBRA. If your employer will not be providing severance pay, consider applying for unemployment insurance to meet your immediate financial needs. 

Not too many employers expect anyone to negotiate with them [on their severance package], says Hamasaki. But, if they feel that this is putting them in a precarious situation, whether its a legal liability or they feel remorseful that they had to let you go, there could be more room for power and negotiation.