Gold or Bitcoin? Beware the malignant tumor, says Black Swan guru Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Is gold or Bitcoin the better investment? Opinions vary widely, with billionaire Mark Cuban favoring Bitcoin and Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff going the other way.
This week, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2010 New York Times bestseller The Black Swan and one of the few to foresee the 20072008 financial crisis, weighed in on the debate during an interview with the French weekly LExpress.
Its safe to say Bitcoin, which has fallen more than 60% since the start of 2022, fails to impress him.
Technology comes and goes
One problem with Bitcoin, he said, is that we are not sure of the interests, mentalities and preferences of future generations. Technology comes and goes, gold stays, at least physically. Once neglected for a brief period, Bitcoin would necessarily collapse.
Whats more, he said, It cannot be expected that an entry on a register that requires active maintenance by interested and motivated peoplethis is how Bitcoin workswill retain its physical properties, a condition for monetary value, for any period of time.
Asked about the origins of the craze for cryptocurrencies, he pointed to the low interest rates of the past 15 years.
Lowering rates creates asset bubbles without necessarily helping the economy, he said. Capital no longer costs anything, risk-free returns on investment become too low, even negative, pushing people into speculation. We lose our sense of what a long-term investment is. It is the end of real finance.
One of the results, he argued, was malignant tumors like Bitcoin.
The everything bubble
Taleb isnt alone in noting the effects of whats been dubbed the everything bubblecreated by years of loose monetary policies from the Fed and other central banks following the Great Financial Crisis. As Fortune reported this week, the easy money era was filled with bullsfrom crypto experts to hedge fund managers to economists and investment bankswho believed the good times would never end.
Interestingly, Taleb was supportive of Bitcoin early on. At the time, as he explained to LExpress, he was critical of then Fed chair Ben Bernanke.
Bernanke, he said, did not see the structural risks of the system before the 2008 crisis, and overreacted afterwards: Instead of correcting debt and mitigating hidden risks, he covered them with a monetary policy that was only supposed to be transitory. I wrongly thought Bitcoin would be a bulwark against the distortions of this monetary policy.
Manipulators and scammers
Taleb also warned that the crypto universe attracts manipulators and scammers.
Hes certainly not alone there.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said at the a16z crypto Founder Summit in late November: We have to kind of come to terms as an industry with the fact that, I think our industry is attracting a disproportionate share of fraudsters and scammers. And thats really unfortunate. That doesnt mean its representative of the whole industry.
(Armstrong added it was baffling to him why FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried wasnt already in custodya few weeks later, he was.)
Taleb tweeted this week that hes been trolled and smeared for his crypto criticism, but that such attacks have been offset by the many thank you messages for saving young people from Bitcoin.
He shared a message in which a Twitter user said he almost bought Bitcoin but then started following Talebs thinking on it, writing, I got why crypto is crap in theory. Then it went bust in practice. NNT saved my dads hard earned money.
Meanwhile, many Bitcoin bulls remain bullish. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently reiterated her prediction that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2030its now just below $17,000. She also argued Bankman-Fried didnt like transparent and decentralized Bitcoin because he couldnt control it, saying the FTX fiasco was caused by opaque centralized players.
As for Cuban, he said on Bill Mahers Club Random podcast last month, I want Bitcoin to go down a lot further so I can buy some more.
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