Business

A 'parade of cyclones' is coming for California

After torrential rains and powerful winds pummeled California over the weekend, forecasters are warning of even more damage and intense storms over the next few days.

Last week, the National Weather Service warned Northern Californians of a brutal storm system approaching the coast, threatening floods, landslides, power outages, and potential loss of life. San Francisco Mayor London Breed even said the city was preparing for war with sandbags, shelters, and emergency supplies, and urging people to stay indoors during the storm.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Sunday that 12 people in the state have died so far, asking people not to test fate as the worst of it is still ahead of us. With nearly 130,000 households without power as of Monday afternoon according to tracking website Poweroutage.us, Californians may have to continue hunkering down for several more days.

The National Weather Service warned in a news bulletin Monday of a parade of cyclones over California, as storms threaten to disrupt daily life across the state. On Sunday evening, President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency in California over the storms, ordering Federal assistance to local response efforts.

The NWS said two major episodes of heavy rain and snowfall are nearing the state that will exacerbate current conditions. The first hit coastal areas on Monday with heavy precipitation while the second that is expected on Tuesday will lead to higher rain and snowfall in the south and inland. The news bulletin warned of rapid water rises, mudslides, and the potential for major river flooding across the entire state.

Heavy snow in Californias mountainous inland areas could create dangerous travel conditions and lead to avalanches. Coastal regions meanwhile are bracing for intense wind gusts, downed trees, and even more power outages. The risks are highest in areas that were hit by the states record-breaking wildfires last summer, where the soil is looser and more prone to deadly mudslides and debris flows.

The NWS warned of thunderstorms and a greater than 50% chance that flash flood warning thresholds will be exceeded across the state over the next few days. Forecasters are expecting these conditions to persist until Wednesday.

The storms intensity is being caused by an atmospheric river originating from the tropics and carrying so much water vapor that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association says it rivals the average flow at the mouth of the Mississippi River. These atmospheric rivers dump huge amounts of rain or snow, and are often accompanied by powerful winds.

The atmospheric rivers have been overlapped since last week with low-pressure systems known as bomb cyclones, sudden drops in air pressure that form when cold and warm air collide and can turbocharge existing storms.

The Sacramento Valley is currently under a flood advisory, while some cities have asked residents to leave before the worst of the storm hits. Officials in Wilton, a town in Sacramento County of around 5,000, issued an evacuation order for residents Sunday evening, citing the high risk of flooding cutting off routes leaving the area. Evacuation advisories were also issued Sunday evening in parts of Alameda and Santa Clara counties.

As of Monday, more than 34 million people in California are under a flood warning, nearly 90% of the states population.

The heavy rainfall could help refill Californias parched reservoirs, which have been at critically low levels after a multiyear drought. Officials have said the states largest reservoirs have enough capacity to absorb the precipitation, although meteorologists have warned that reservoirs and ecosystems need a steady flow of rainfall to replenish, while the fast and heavy precipitations of the last few days could oversaturate the ground with water and lead to overflowing reservoirs and even higher flood risks.

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Hybrid work is expanding beyond white collar jobs to finally include frontline workers

These days, white-collar jobs might as well be known as non-collar jobs, considering the many knowledge workers who dial in from the sofa in their t-shirts and sweats.

Remote work became an unevenly distributed privilege during lockdown. While some employees were able to dodge the office and its associated pandemic risks, others risked their lives and continued to provide on-site services. Many of these frontline workers were service workers, such as grocery store cashiers, as well as some knowledge workers, such as the health care professionals working in hospitals.

But as remote jobs fade nearly three years in, hybrid policies have become a major compromise between those who still want flexibility and those who want to return to in-person work (often typecast as employers and bosses, respectively).

Hybrid work is still often siloed to only the white-collar worker, though. But consulting company Gartner predicts that could all change this year, asserting in its 2023 workplace forecast that hybrid flexibility will reach frontline workers.

Many companies rolled out hybrid policies to try and even the playing field between those who could and couldnt work from home, Gartner points out, mandating in-office attendance at least a few days a week. More than six in 10 companies have some on-site requirements for remote workers.

2023 will see a shift: Instead of limiting flexibility to make things fair across the board, smart organizations will try to implement strategies that make work more flexible for frontline workers. That might look like giving them more autonomy and stability in regards to their work schedules, plus more paid leave.

Some companies have already started accommodating this way of work. Fast casual restaurant DIG implemented a four-day workweeka growing trend in knowledge workplacesto its service employees in the second half of 2022 (after beginning the pilot in 2020), finding the rollout to boost both productivity and employee satisfaction.

If the suits can do it, why cant we? Brian Coakley, DIGs director of operations told Fortune. Why cant we do it in the restaurant industry?

Indeed, research shows that hybrid work can be a major key to keeping employees from quitting; hybrid workers have reported higher levels of company loyalty than their fully remote or in-person counterparts. And a study from software company Citrix also revealed that hybrid knowledge workers were more likely than their remote or fully in-office peers to connect with their coworkers in a manner that made them happier and more productive. They also reported being more connected to their leaders.

Workers value flexibility so much that theyre still quitting to find it elsewhere, even as a recession looms ahead.

Were seeing a slew of resignations from jobs that have forced employees back to the office, suggesting that workers have made workplace flexibility an ultimatum they refuse to give upand theyre not deterred by recent layoff reports, VP of people at Payscale, Lexi Clarke, said in a statement to Fortune in December.

If hybrid work does reach more frontline industries, then flexibility may become so ubiquitous that it could turn into a workplace staple rather than a workplace perk.

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Refinancing student loans: a complete guide

The average student loan debt balance as of 2022 was $40,780, according to the Education Data Initiative, and often that debt is made up of multiple loans, including both federal and private loans.

Keeping abreast of several student loan payments each month can be challenging at best, and in such situations, refinancing may be a wise step. Not only will doing so streamline your debt, but in some cases may also lower your interest rate.

Before refinancing student loans, however, be sure you understand how best to navigate the process successfully. And more importantly, take the time to consider all of the ramifications of your choiceparticularly if youre considering refinancing federal student loans and may lose valuable benefits in the process.

Why should you refinance your student loans?

There are many reasons why you might want to refinance student loans, including saving money and simplifying your debt management efforts.

The reason why most people refinance is to get a lower interest rate. If your credit has improved since you first took out the loan, you may be able to qualify for a better rate and save a significant amount of money, explains debt relief attorney Leslie Tayne, founder of Tayne Law Group.

Refinancing and consolidating multiple loans will also reduce the number of payments you have to track and worry about each month. This in turn, can make it less likely that youll miss or forget to make a payment.

Yet another reason to refinance is to obtain new and potentially more favorable loan terms.

For instance, if your income has dropped, you can refinance to a longer repayment period, which translates to lower monthly payments, says Tayne. Though youll pay more in interest over time, this could be worth it if it means opening up more cash flow to cover your bills.

When to think twice about refinancing

While there are indeed benefits associated with refinancing under the right circumstances, this move is not necessarily right for everyone. This is an important point. And it is particularly true for those holding federal student loans, as refinancing may result in losing a long list of valuable benefits.

When refinancing federal student loans into private loans, for instance, you lose access to such valuable programs as forbearance and deferment, which allow you to pause payments when facing financial challenges.

Youll also forfeit the opportunity to utilize income-driven repayment programs, which set monthly loan payments at a reasonable percentage of your income. Finally, federal student loans also offer the opportunity to earn forgiveness or discharge of the debtparticularly for those working in the government or nonprofit sector or other specific industries that are eligible for such forgiveness.

If youre worried about the potential of repaying the loans or the stability of your job, then you may want to consider holding off on refinancing so that you dont miss out on these benefits, says Jeff White, financial advisor with Saving for College, a platform that provides education surrounding student loan financing and refinancing. Even the lowest interest rates arent going to be that appealing if you end up needing to postpone payments while you look for a new job.

5 steps to navigate student loan refinancing

In order to make the most of student loan refinancing, its helpful to understand your total loan picture, take ample time shopping around for loan offers, and think through which of your loans make the most sense to refinance. These are just a few key moves that can make refinancing more truly beneficial. Heres a closer look at these steps, and others, that should be part of your student loan refinancing journey.

1. Crunch the numbers

To truly understand how valuable refinancing mayor may not befirst sit down and crunch the numbers. Calculate how much you owe overall across all student loans and identify the critical details associated with each loan to help you comparison shop knowledgeably. This should include identifying the specific interest rate associated with each loan and reviewing each loans terms, which can help you understand which loans make the most sense to refinance.

You may also want to use a student loan refinancing calculator to determine how much refinancing at a new interest rate may save you over the life of your loan.

If youre thinking about refinancing or changing anything about the repayment of your student loans, then you should first make sure the move is right for you, says White. This means understanding how much you owe and how that could change over time with your current repayment terms and interest arrangements. You also need to understand your current balance, your interest rate, and your repayment terms.

2. Assess your overall financial profile

In addition to reviewing the details of your student loan agreements, take a step back and review your broader financial picture. This includes identifying your total current monthly income and checking your credit profile and credit scores.

You may also want to calculate your current debt-to-income ratio, which is the percentage of your monthly debt payments compared to your monthly income. Its important to understand your DTI because lenders will consider this figure when reviewing your loan application.

3. Shop around for the lowest interest rate

Once youve identified all the pertinent details of your existing student loan agreements and overall financial picture, its time to shop around for refinancing. Youll want to take the time to explore other offers thoroughly and get the most competitive loan possible. This should involve comparing multiple lenders before making a decision.

There are multiple options for refinancing, and its smart to check all options available before committing to refinancing, says Zack Geist, CEO of Student Loan Tutor, a financial advisory company that provides custom student loan repayment strategies. There are marketplaces and banks that specifically assist with student loans, so always check with multiple banks, credit unions, and institutions and shop around before making a decision.

As youre shopping around for the lowest interest rate and best loan terms, remember to also pay attention to loan fees, as they will play a role in the total cost of the loan as well. While many private lenders may offer a lower interest rate, they may seek to recoup that money in the form of large fees.

4. Consolidate multiple loans

When pursuing student loan refinancing, saving on interest is typically just one of the goals. Refinancing also presents the opportunity for many borrowers to consolidate multiple debts. The benefit of this, of course, is making monthly debt management simpler. And by reducing the number of bills you need to manage, its less likely that a payment will fall through the cracks.

The more debt payments youre managing, the greater your chances of making a mistake, says White. Missing a payment or paying the wrong lender could wreak havoc on your credit. Plus, having multiple loans could end up costing you more as there are servicing fees, and the interest could end up being higher altogether than it would be if you refinance.

Borrowers with multiple federal student loans can consolidate into a Direct Consolidation loan, which is also offered by the U.S. Department of Education. These loans offer a fixed interest rate thats calculated based on the average of the interest rates on the loans being consolidated. A benefit of this approach is that theres no application fee when applying for Direct Consolidation loans.

5. Dont feel compelled to refinance all of your loans

Finally, its important to bear in mind that you dont have to refinance all of your student loans. Sometimes, it may make sense to only refinance those with the steepest interest rates or the least favorable terms.

And remember, refinancing federal student loans is often not the best choice.

Refinancing is usually the last recommended solution for borrowers with federal student loans and only in certain instances, says Geist. Refinancing should be looked at for balances under $75,000 on federal student loansor for borrowers that already have private student loans and are looking to get a lower interest rate. For those with federal student loans who have income-driven repayment plans, refinancing and paying the loans off in full is usually the most expensive route.

The takeaway

Refinancing student loans may offer benefits if youre struggling to keep up with multiple monthly payments or have steep interest rates on your debt. But this move is not the best step for everyoneparticularly those who have federal student loans and will lose valuable loan program benefits.

If you do choose to pursue refinancing, make sure you understand both your current student loan details and the terms of the refinancing offers youre considering before making a decision to proceed. Use online student loan refinancing calculators to determine your total cost for both your existing loans and the refinance offers to determine the best option. If youre still uncertain about how to proceed, consult a professional financial adviser who can help you make the right decision.

Bob Iger just put his foot down and told Disney employees to come back into the office 4 days a week as the remote work wars rage on

Walt Disney Co. is asking its workers to return to the companys offices four days a week starting on March 1, according to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg.

Employees currently working in a hybrid fashion will be asked to spend four days a week on-site, targeting Monday through Thursday as in-person workdays, Bob Iger, who returned as chief executive officer of Disney in November, said in the memo.

Iger, who ran the Burbank, California-based entertainment giant from 2005 to 2020, said in his first meeting with employees after returning last year that he was planning to spend a lot of time in the office and joked that he hoped he wouldnt be lonely. He also suggested workers could adjust their hours to avoid traffic when they come back.

In Mondays memo, Iger praised staffers for their work, citing the companys film Avatar: The Way of Water becoming the seventh highest-grossing movie of all time, as well as ESPNs handling of Damar Hamlins cardiac arrest during Monday Night Football.

In a creative business like ours, nothing can replace the ability to connect, observe, and create with peers that comes from being physically together, nor the opportunity to grow professionally by learning from leaders and mentors, Iger said in the memo, which was reported earlier by CNBC.

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'We havent seen any downturn': The Rolls Royce index is up as the super rich keep buying the luxury car

A cooling economy isnt stopping the very wealthy from buying a Rolls-Royce.

We havent seen any downturn in order intake here over the last months, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Torsten Müller-Ötvös told Bloomberg Television. Im cautiously optimistic about this year.

While Rolls-Royce isnt immune to a recession, the global distribution of its customers protects the luxury-car maker somewhat, the CEO said. The British company is coming off a record year, having delivered more than 6,000 vehicles in 2022.

Rolls-Royce, owned by Germanys BMW AG, plans to sell only battery-powered vehicles by the end of this decade. The British manufacturer in October showed off the Spectre, an all-electric coupe with a zero-to-60 mph sprint time of 4.4 seconds.

Orders for the Spectre, which is supposed to arrive in the fourth quarter, are exceeding our highest expectations, the CEO said, adding that the brand is attracting new customers because its going electric.

The overall luxury market may cool slightly this year and its too early to predict how China will develop, even as its encouraging that travel from the Asian country is picking up, Müller-Ötvös said.

Once the pandemic is over in China, I foresee again growth patterns to happen there as well, he said. The rest of the world is pretty stable.

Rolls-Royce sales rose 8% last year to 6,021 cars as growing demand in the Americas offset declines in China, with customers spending around 500,000 ($537,100) per vehicle on average. The Cullinan, the brands first sport utility vehicle, was Rolls-Royces best-selling model making up almost half of deliveries, the CEO said.

With assistance from Guy Collins and Alix Steel.

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The world's best restaurant is closing down as head chef criticizes 'unsustainable' industry

Even fine dinings highest-profile restaurateurs admit that their industrys business model is broken and needs an injection of creativity.

Hit hard by the pandemic, restaurants have had to re-create themselves over the past few years by accepting takeout orders and reinventing their menus. But the pandemic and ongoing staffing shortages have also revealed that the fine dining business is fragile and may not survive in the post-pandemic age.

One high-profile restaurant that is gambling on reinvention is Copenhagens Noma, considered to be among the worlds best. The restaurant announced on Monday that it will close its doors to regular service in 2024, but the closure will not be the end of Nomas brand.

The restaurant will return in 2025 as a giant food lab where the kitchen will be dedicated to the work of food innovation and the development of new flavors. The new Nomadubbed Noma 3.0will create pop-ups worldwide, while mainly focusing on expanding choices for its e-commerce Noma Projects line, which markets experimental recipes and products to individual buyers. The company said that being a restaurant will no longer define the Noma brand.

The Copenhagen location could reopen in the future, however, for seasonal menus and pop-ups.

The reinvention comes as fine dining finds itself at a crossroads, as the industry attempts to shed what Noma co-owner and head chef René Redzepi says has become a working model that tends to bleed employees dry. From long hours to extreme physical demands, working in the kitchen or on the restaurant floor can be one of the most demanding professions.

We have to completely rethink the industry, Redzepi said in an interview with the New York Times published Monday. This is simply too hard, and we have to work in a different way.

Reinventing an industry

Since opening in 2003, Noma has revolutionized the culinary world with its exploration of New Nordic dining and a focus on local and seasonal products. The three Michelin-starred restaurant that topped the influential Worlds 50 Best Restaurants list for the fifth time in 2021 has a menu that includes flower-pot-like cakes and ducks that have had the top of their skulls surgically removed.

In his interview with the Times, Redzepi said big changes for the restaurant were a long time coming, as the pandemic revealed to him that the model that Nomas success was based on has simply become impractical. The head chef said that maintaining meal prices that are high enough to provide competitive salaries to nearly 100 workers is untenable in the current market, echoing the affordability challenges many restaurant owners are facing due to rising food costs and pandemic-fueled changes in how diners eat.

Its unsustainable, Redzepi said of the industry in its current state. Financially and emotionally, as an employer and as a human being, it just doesnt work.

Even before the pandemic, restaurant workers were some of the most stressed-out employees around, and staffing problems were a huge headache for kitchens. In 2016, for every 10 restaurant workers, seven of them did not stay in the same job for more than a year, while over 50% of restaurant operators said in a 2019 report that staffing was their biggest issue.

Dealing with customers, long work hours, and low pay are the driving forces behind the restaurant industrys high turnover rate, but those same issues are magnified in fine dining with higher expectations and stakes. Redzepi himself admitted that the grind wears people out with hours of hard, grueling, low-paid work.

Reports have circled for years that Noma relies on low-pay foreign workers whose visas depend on the restaurant and unpaid interns who risked being placed on an international blacklist if they left before their contracts were up. Noma began paying participants of its internship program last year, but several graduates interviewed by the Times said it had failed to live up to expectations, with some criticizing Redzepis management style.

Its a Mafia mentality, and he is the don, Lisa Lind Dunbar, a Danish activist and industry veteran, said about Redzepi. No one defies him publicly or privately.

Neither Noma nor Redzepi responded to Fortunes request for comment on the allegations.

Redzepi told the Times that restaurant workers would ideally be allowed to work four days a week, and work fewer hours overall with better pay. But the current fine dining model does not allow for that because the high demands of the industry and the intensive kitchen work put into execution still require employees to regularly work 16-hour days. Lower-brow restaurants, however, have pushed on to make such changes to help deal with the industrys ongoing staffing woes.

Early last year, the New York City-based casual restaurant chain DIG announced it would introduce four-day workweeks for its 500 hourly employees. Also last year, fast food chain Chick-fil-A took it a step forward by offering three-day workweeks to all of its employees.

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If your kid is obese, you should give them medications as young as 12 and surgery at age 13, according to the first new guidelines in 15 years

Children struggling with obesity should be evaluated and treated early and aggressively, including with medications for kids as young as 12 and surgery for those as young as 13, according to new guidelines released Monday.

The longstanding practice of watchful waiting, or delaying treatment to see whether children and teens outgrow or overcome obesity on their own only worsens the problem that affects more than 14.4 million young people in the U.S. Left untreated, obesity can lead to lifelong health problems, including high blood pressure, diabetes and depression.

Waiting doesnt work, said Dr. Ihuoma Eneli, co-author of the first guidance on childhood obesity in 15 years from the American Academy of Pediatrics. What we see is a continuation of weight gain and the likelihood that theyll have (obesity) in adulthood.

For the first time, the groups guidance sets ages at which kids and teens should be offered medical treatments such as drugs and surgery in addition to intensive diet, exercise and other behavior and lifestyle interventions, said Eneli, director of the Center for Healthy Weight and Nutrition at Nationwide Childrens Hospital.

In general, doctors should offer adolescents 12 and older who have obesity access to appropriate drugs and teens 13 and older with severe obesity referrals for weight-loss surgery, though situations may vary.

The guidelines aim to reset the inaccurate view of obesity as a personal problem, maybe a failure of the persons diligence, said Dr. Sandra Hassink, medical director for the AAP Institute for Healthy Childhood weight, and a co-author of the guidelines.

This is not different than you have asthma and now we have an inhaler for you, Hassink said.

Young people who have a body mass index that meets or exceeds the 95th percentile for kids of the same age and gender are considered obese. Kids who reach or exceed the 120th percentile are considered to have severe obesity. BMI is a measure of body size based on a calculation of height and weight.

Obesity affects nearly 20% of kids and teens in the U.S. and about 42% of adults, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The groups guidance takes into consideration that obesity is a biological problem and that the condition is a complex, chronic disease, said Aaron Kelly, co-director of the Center for Pediatric Obesity Medicine at the University of Minnesota.

Obesity is not a lifestyle problem. It is not a lifestyle disease, he said. It predominately emerges from biological factors.

The guidelines come as new drug treatments for obesity in kids have emerged, including approval late last month of Wegovy, a weekly injection, for use in children ages 12 and older. Different doses of the drug, called semaglutide, are also used under different names to treat diabetes. A recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk, helped teens reduce their BMI by about 16% on average, better than the results in adults.

Within days of the Dec. 23 authorization, pediatrician Dr. Claudia Fox had prescribed the drug for one of her patients, a 12-year-old girl.

What it offers patients is the possibility of even having an almost normal body mass index, said Fox, also a weight management specialist at the University of Minnesota. Its like a whole different level of improvement.

The drug affects how the pathways between the brain and the gut regulate energy, said Dr. Justin Ryder, an obesity researcher at Lurie Childrens Hospital in Chicago.

It works on how your brain and stomach communicate with one another and helps you feel more full than you would be, he said.

Still, specific doses of semaglutide and other anti-obesity drugs have been hard to get because of recent shortages caused by manufacturing problems and high demand, spurred in part by celebrities on TikTok and other social media platforms boasting about enhanced weight loss.

In addition, many insurers wont pay for the medication, which costs about $1,300 a month. I sent the prescription yesterday, Fox said. Im not holding my breath that insurance will cover it.

One expert in pediatric obesity cautioned that while kids with obesity must be treated early and intensively, he worries that some doctors may turn too quickly to drugs or surgery.

Its not that Im against the medications, said Dr. Robert Lustig, a longtime specialist in pediatric endocrinology at the University of California, San Francisco. Im against the willy-nilly use of those medications without addressing the cause of the problem.

Lustig said children must be evaluated individually to understand all of the factors that contribute to obesity. He has long blamed too much sugar for the rise in obesity. He urges a sharp focus on diet, particularly ultraprocessed foods that are high in sugar and low in fiber.

Dr. Stephanie Byrne, a pediatrician at Cedars Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, said shed like more research about the drugs efficacy in a more diverse group of children and about potential long-term effects before she begins prescribing it regularly.

I would want to see it be used on a little more consistent basis, she said. And I would have to have that patient come in pretty frequently to be monitored.

At the same time, she welcomed the groups new emphasis on prompt, intensive treatment for obesity in kids.

I definitely think this is a realization that diet and exercise is not going to do it for a number of teens who are struggling with this maybe the majority, she said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institutes Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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