A 2024 Trump Presidency could help juice battered stock markets, according to ex-White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, but warned about his former bosss tendency to rock political stability.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced from his Florida estate on Tuesday night that he was launching a third White House campaign.
I am running because I believe the world has not yet seen the true glory of what this nation can be, he told an audience at his Mar-a-Lago club.
Speaking to reporters at a conference in Singapore on Wednesday, Anthony Scaramuccithe founder of Skybridge Capital who served as Trumps communications chief before he was sacked after just 10 dayspredicted the former presidents fast-and-loose tendencies could help boost financial markets.
Hes the Holy Trinity of market lubrication, he said, in remarks reported by news agency Reuters. Stimulus, through deficit spending, low interest rateseasy moneyand a lack of regulation.
However, Scaramucci acknowledged that Trump also threatened to create volatility in markets that have already suffered a year of shaky ground.
The flip side is [investors] also know that he creates what markets absolutely hate: political instability, he said. If any one of those other candidates can present themselves with some of the Trump messaging without the Trump drama, there might be opportunities.
Throughout his presidency, Trump often took to Twitter to celebrate the strength of the U.S. stock market. Within the first two years of being in office, Trump had tweeted at least 60 times about the stock market, according to CNBC, frequently taking credit for its successes.
Doubtful investors bullish on Trump 2.0
Markets have so far had a muted response to Trumps widely anticipated announcement, with U.S. stock futures dipping slightly on Wednesday and European markets instead reacting to a missile crossing the Ukrainian border and exploding on Polish territory.
In a note on Wednesday, Matt Simpson, a market analyst at Australias City Index, said that at this stage, the biggest question on investors minds was whether Trumps presidential bid would divide the Republican party and inadvertently hand the Democrats an easy win.
Simpson noted that Trump was likely just warming up for what could be another turbulent 2-years (at least) for U.S. politics, but conceded that a lot could happen before the 2024 vote.
If inflation is not under control, it will put the Dems in a very weak position by the elections, he said.
However, its a long arduous road to the White House and as of yet Trump wields no presidential powers, so it could take some time for markets to take noticewhich is likely why they showed no meaningful reaction today, from an announcement we all fully expected.
Meanwhile, Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP, told Reuters that although Trumps presidency was associated with strong equity market performance, there were also two years of rough returns thanks to his trade war policies and the COVID-19 outbreak.
Things have changed a lot since then so its doubtful investors would be concluding a new Trump presidency would necessarily be good for shares, he said.
If anything, his decision to run may accentuate the divisions going on amongst Republicans, with many blaming him for their poor midterm election showing and these divisions may even lessen the chance of a more market friendly Republican administration gaining the presidency in 2024 so some investors may actually see it as a negative for markets.
Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you dont miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.
