Cases of Omicron variant XBB are mounting in China, forming a new wave expected to crest around 65 million cases a week by the end of June.
Infections will likely reach 40 million per week by the end of the month, senior health adviser Zhong Nashan told attendees at a biotech conference in Guangzhou, according to Bloomberg.
The wave could swell to become the countrys second largest, experts tell Fortune. It will undoubtedly pale in comparison to the countrys first major wave late last year, during which an estimated 37 million people were infected on one dayDec. 20alone.
That waveequivalent to the early days of the pandemic for the rest of the worldoccurred after the country abruptly abandoned its yearslong zero COVID policy, effectively letting the virus rip through a population that had been largely sheltered from the itand that was vastly undervaccinated.
A largely invisible wave
XBB, the first major highly immune-evasive group of COVID variants, will sweep through China, but the wave will be largely invisible due to low rates of testing and reporting, Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., and a top COVID-variant tracker, tells Fortune.
When it comes to XBB variants, the rest of the world has seen them all. But up until recently, China hasnt, he says, adding that the country has a substantial population at high risk of severe outcomes from COVID due to age, immune status, and co-morbid conditions.
Increased circulation of XBB variants in Chinaand elsewhereis likely to result in the evolution of new XBB variants, Rajnarayanan said. So far, XBB spawn have remained relatively innocuous for those not at increased risk of severe disease, according to the World Health Organizations latest situation report, released Thursday.
Go back for regular check-ups
It remains to be seen whether hospitalizations will rise in China, Rajnarayanan and fellow variant tracker Ryan Gregorya Canadian biologist who has assigned street names to so-called high flying variants like XBB.1.5, dubbed Krakentell Fortune.
Hospitalizations can, however, be expected to rise if variants that combine the transmissibility of XBB with the lung involvement of Delta catch on, in China or elsewhere. Trackers are eyeing variants that have a mutation in the spike protein that could cause such a phenomenon. So far, such variants are only prevalent in New Zealand and the European Union, Rajnarayanan says.
The evolution of a veritable XBB-Delta combo isnt an inevitability, though, Rajnarayanan says.
And while the virus is capable of pivoting at any point, evolving into a more lethal version of itself, it so far hasntand the chance of it doing so isnt any greater in China that it is in the rest of the world, where the virus is also spreading unchecked, Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washingtons Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, tells Fortune.
While caution is always warranted when it comes to COVID, people everywhere need to go back for regular check-ups, and bring their kids in for vaccinations, Mokdad said.
COVID precautions saved a lot of lives, he added. Its time for us to go back to normal and make sure its not at the expense of other preventative programs.
