Americans are headed to the polls for the pivotal U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8. But for voters in some U.S. states, a litany of rules, restrictions, and regulations will make voting more difficult. These voters will face obstacles such as limited polling place access, stricter voter identification requirements, and added administrative burdens for mail-in voting.

At first glance, such obstacles might seem inconsequential. And yet, even seemingly small obstacles matter. People are deterred from voting when their polling place is further away, when polling stations opening hours are limited, and even when it rains.

Why then do many Americans accept these restrictions?

Uncovering the real (and perceived) drivers of voter turnout

Some Americans accept voting restrictions as a way to mitigate perceived voter fraud, while others support such policies with the apparent intent of suppressing opposition votes. But in new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we uncover another, more fundamental reason: People may just fail to recognize that these policies suppress turnout.

We surveyed a representative sample of over 1,200 eligible American voters in election-competitive states before the 2020 elections and then followed up with them after the election to see if they voted. Friction mattered a great deal to turnout. Americans who faced more obstaclessuch as those who didnt own a car or would have to get childcare or take time off work to votewere less likely to cast their vote.

And yet, in estimations of what would affect voter turnout, the same group of Americans consistently neglected friction. They assumed that whether someone turns out to vote or not primarily depends on their attitudes and values, such as how strongly they identify as conservative or liberal or see voting as their civic duty. 

More specifically, only about one in 10 survey participants mentioned any form of friction when asked to indicate what they think drives turnout. In comparison, about nine in 10 mentioned at least one belief (for example, ideology or party affiliation). In other words, Americans think that turnout is largely driven by beliefsand underestimate the role of friction.

Even seasoned politicians can underappreciate friction. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump spent most of their budgets on media in their 2020 campaigns. After examining the campaign videos, we found that almost all of them mentioned beliefs, whereas hardly any (~10% for both) touched on friction.

A costly blind spot

This blind spot could be perpetuating limited voter access. People who underestimated the effect of friction on voter turnout tended to endorse friction-imposing policies and oppose policies that make voting easier. This helps shed light on legislators and voters tacit or even vocal support for measures that restrict voters access to the polls.

States are enacting such friction-imposing policies, with some segments of would-be voters being disproportionately affected. In particular, those with scarce resources are commonly held back by (seemingly) trivial barriers. Inaccessible polling stations and long queues can be especially challenging for the frail and less able-bodied. For parents juggling work and childcare, the inability to vote by mail or outside work hours puts voting almost out of reach. In other words, these frictions deprive vulnerable citizens of their fundamental right to equal representation.

Policymakers and voters alike tend to argue that if people are motivated enough, they can easily surmount mundane barriers. This naive view ignores the importance of making civic engagement not just possible, but easy.

Making things easy from the ground up

While implementing automatic voter registration and instituting structural changes through legislative reform could widen voting access, national-level attempts such as the ambitious For the People Act have failed to take off.

Fortunately, while some legislators are limiting voters opportunities to make themselves heard, grassroots organizations have stepped up to push back against friction. These groups have introduced initiatives such as the All in to Vote online platform, simplifying the voting process. 

The new voting restrictions in the 2022 midterm elections are set to put American agency to the test yet again. And while many voters may fail to appreciate the harmful effects of friction on turnout, new initiatives can help expand voter access.

Geoff Tomaino is a P.h.D. student at INSEAD. Ziv Carmon is the Alfred H. Heineken Chaired Professor of Marketing at INSEAD. Asaf Mazar is a behavioral scientist and postdoctoral research fellow at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Wendy Wood is the Provost Professor of Psychology and Business at the University of Southern California.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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Russia sent its second-ever crude oil shipment east through the Arctic Circle toward China, a route that could one day give the country a faster way to buyers in Asia.

The Vasily Dinkov, a specialized ice-breaking tanker, is traveling along the Northern Sea Route after loading crude late last month from a storage tanker moored at Murmansk, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. The ship, hauling a relatively tiny cargo, crossed Russias northern coast and passed through the Bering Strait, separating the country from Alaska, over the weekend. Its due to arrive at the Chinese port of Rizhao on Nov. 17.

The route includes a 3,300-mile voyage across the top of Russia and through some of the planets harshest sailing conditions where icebergs and freezing conditions are common. The journey is the shortest passage between Europe and east Asia, taking half the time to reach China from Russias Baltic ports than the conventional route through the Suez Canal.

Its unclear how significant the logistics tweak will prove for Russia that will depend on how weather conditions develop. Until now, the vast majority of the nations Arctic Sea production has been gathered on storage tankers at Murmansk from small shuttle tankers. Its then re-loaded onto bigger vessels to deliver mostly to Europe. That trade will essentially halt in the coming weeks because the European Union is banning most seaborne imports from Russia from Dec. 5.

The Vasily Dinkov is a very advanced ship with a specialized ice-breaking hull, but there are only eight that are able to make such trips, according to Richard Matthews, head of research at E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. in London. As such, the route wouldnt be particularly viable before summer at the earliest.

It looks unlikely that any significant volumes could be shipped along this route until summer, he said.

That the shipment is taking place is a reminder of how the world is getting warmer. World leaders are gathering in Egypt for the next two weeks to discuss ways to combat climate change.

Vital Prevalence

The ship is one of a fleet of three that was built specifically to shuttle crude from Lukoil PJSCs Varandey export terminal to Murmansk, a round-trip that usually takes about two weeks. Using the ship to move crude to China will take it off its normal duties for as long as eight weeks.

China has increased the amount of crude imported from Russia but the maritime logistics in response to Europes ban will need careful planning. Delivering to Asia via the Suez Canal will mean far longer voyages than has been the case so far, driving up vessel demand.

Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, an oil analytics firm, said the Northern Sea Route will be of vital prevalence when summer comes.

Europe is already sealed off, he said. If theyre not buying, why circumnavigate the entire universe if you can use the Northern Sea Route to get to China in 20 days?

Further melting is steadily improving the regions accessibility every year, opening it up more and more to merchant traffic and the accompanying environmental risks that poses.

The state-owned Russian energy-giant Rosneft could increase the volume of crude available to traverse the Northern Sea Route. Its Vostok Oil project consists of several oil fields on Russias far Northern peninsula, and is estimated to churn out 500,000 barrels a day by 2024. Construction of an oil terminal in the Sever Bay port is underway which will ensure the shipment of oil from the Vostok Oil fields along the route, said Rosneft in a press release, making it the largest oil-trading terminal in Russia.     

Oil Tanker Stocks Defy Global Equity Gloom as Russian Risks Loom

The first oil shipment through the Northern Sea Route took place in 2019. There have been none since, according to Katona at Kpler.

While shorter journeys reduce emissions, the route raises environmental concerns that more traffic through the Arctic will add to pollution from tankers smokestacks. When the soot darkens the surface of the ice, it speeds up the warming process by absorbing more of the suns energy.

Accidents in the Arctic would also be more problematic than normal due to the remote location and lack of local spill response capabilities. 

Im not sure how you would clean up an oil spill in that part of the world, Matthews said. 

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Citadels billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said low taxes didnt bring him to Miami, his firms adopted home.

Its gonna get me thrown out of here, but taxes werent part of our decision to come to Florida, Griffin, now the states richest man, said Monday in a conversation with Francis Suarez, Miamis Republican mayor. When youve got great schools, a great environment and your streets are safe and clean, thats when youve got a place you want to live in and call home.

Griffin has an estimated fortune of more than $29 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. This was his first public appearance in Miami since moving his family and the global headquarters of his Citadel and Citadel Securities to the city from Chicago earlier this year. 

Theres something very special about the government in Florida and their focus on delivering traditional values for the community, he said.

Griffin has become one of the biggest Republican benefactors in the US midterm elections, giving Floridas Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, $5 million for his re-election race. Although he did not talk about DeSantis, who has a considerable lead in polls, in the Monday exchange, Griffin said in a recent interview to Bloomberg News hed back him for president in 2024, even if up against Donald Trump.

Griffin said he was drawn to politics while still in Chicago, where he came to sharply disagree with policies, particularly involving law enforcement, that he considers responsible for unwinding years of progress. The Citadel founder has poured about $69 million in the 2021-2022 election cycle according to OpenSecrets, a group that tracks campaign donation.

Griffins Miami move is likely have a long-lasting effect on the city. To house its global headquarters, Citadel is building a waterfront tower in the Brickell financial district, which may cost $1 billion. He has also ramped up philanthropic donations.

Griffin is part of larger contingent of multibillion-dollar investors like Dan Och, Dan Sundheim and Josh Harris drawn to Florida during the height of the pandemic. Their arrival spurred last year the creation of the Economic Club of Miami, which hosted Mondays event.

We are trying to capture the zeitgeist of this Miami moment, said Jon Hartley, chair of the club, which counts former Governor Jeb Bushs son, Jeb Bush Jr. as one of its founders.

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A Nigerian influencer who dubbed himself Billionaire Gucci Master has been jailed for over 11 years for his role in an international fraud syndicate in which he conspired to launder over $300 million. 

Described by the FBI as as one of the most prolific money launderers in the world, Ramon Abbas, who went by Ray Hushpuppi on social media, attracted a following of over 2.8 million on Instagram by flaunting his immensely lavish lifestyle, complete with luxury cars and private jets. 

Abbas, 40, funded his excessive habits through multiple counts of fraud, according to court documents, and has now been sentenced, along with a Canadian man, to 135 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to money laundering. A Los Angeles judge ordered Abbas to pay over $1.7 million in restitution to two of his victims.

Over an 18-month period, court documents reveal that he helped launder over $300 million by engaging in online bank heists and business email compromise (BEC), a crime that involves impersonating others by hacking into email accounts and persuading victims to wire them money. Abbas says he only made $300,000 for himself through his crimes.

Abbass victims included a New York law firm which he persuaded to wire $900,000 into a criminal account, an unnamed British Football Club, and someone who was going to use their money to fund a new school in Qatar. 

In 2019, Abbas attempted to launder $13 million stolen by North Korean hackers from Maltas Bank of Valletta, which subsequently shut down payment systems, throwing the European country into chaos.

Victims were financially ruined

Abbas leveraged his social media platforms to gain notoriety and to brag about the immense wealth he acquired, said Don Alway, the assistant director in charge of the FBIs Los Angeles Field Office, in a court document.

The fraud he committed financially ruined scores of victims and provided assistance to the North Korean regime, he added. 

This significant sentence is the result of years worth of collaboration among law enforcement in multiple countries and should send a clear warning to international fraudsters that the FBI will seek justice for victims, regardless of whether criminals operate within or outside United States borders.

Abbass crimes go back years, having first started in romance fraud, according to the BBC, which involves adopting the identities of different people online and persuading lovers to transfer money. 

The influencer was originally arrested at a property in Dubai in 2020, from which officials seized around $41 million and 13 luxury cars worth $6.8 million. 

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Voters in the U.S. who go on Twitter, TikTok, Facebook or other platforms to learn about Tuesdays pivotal U.S. midterm elections are likely to encounter rumors, hearsay and misinformation.

Theres also a lot of useful information on social media, including authoritative results from election officials, the latest news about candidates and races, and the perspectives of the voters casting ballots.

Here are some tips for navigating social media on Election Day and in the days or weeks that follow.

MISHAPS WILL HAPPEN. IT DOESNT MEAN THERE IS FRAUD

Elections are run by humans, and mistakes are unavoidable. Yet, stripped of context, stories of irregularities at polling places and election offices can be used as evidence of widespread fraud.

And with so much happening on Election Day, election workers, local officials and even the media can have little time to push back on such claims before they go viral.

In Georgia in 2020, a water leak at a site where ballots were being counted was used to spin a far-fetched tale of ballot rigging. In Arizona, the choice of pens given to voters filling out ballots led to similarly preposterous claims.

Neither incident affected the results, yet both continue to show up in misleading posts as evidence of fraud.

The internet allows people to create their own evidence from scratch, and then spread it to millions of others, said John Jackson, dean of the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. That doesnt mean their evidence means anything, but it does mean that we all have to be better at evaluating what theyre saying.

KNOW YOUR BLIND SPOTS

Misinformation thrives when people are looking for information to explain something they dont understand. That creates a big opportunity for those looking to confuse or mislead voters.

The complicated rules and checks-and-balances governing American elections vary from state to state. They can baffle someone not well versed in election procedures, and that confusion has allowed misinformation to thrive.

Many of the misleading claims spreading ahead of the election focused on issues of voting mechanics: voter registration, mail ballots and vote tallying. Many election officials have tried to educate the public in recent months with social media posts, articles and ads about the system so many people take for granted.

Anytime people dont understand something, theres a vacuum that needs to be filled, said A.J. Nash, vice president for intelligence at ZeroFox, a cybersecurity firm that has been tracking election misinformation this year. The question is: What ends up filling that vacuum?

CHECK YOUR SOURCES

If youre looking for election results, go to local and state election websites and trusted local and national news outlets.

If you see someone posting about problems at a polling place, for instance, check the social media feed or website of the local election office.

Avoid getting all your information about the election from social media. Rules about content moderation vary widely from platform to platform, and enforcement can be spotty. Even the owners of the platforms themselves are not immune from spreading misinformation, as Twitters new owner, Elon Musk has done.

A well-rounded media diet heavy on authoritative, trustworthy sources can help people avoid falling for, or spreading, misinformation, according to Bhaskar Chakravorti, who studies technological change and society and is the dean of global business at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.

Do you consult original sources, or do you just get your news from social media? Chakravorti said. If you are only using sources from social media, you are going to be more vulnerable to misinformation.

PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR EMOTIONS

The most viral misleading claims often rely on tricks to persuade a person to believe something that isnt true.

Emotionally charged language is one of the most effective: Be suspicious of any claim that seems designed to provoke a strong emotional response like fear or anger. These strong feelings can cause a person to repost a false claim before theyve had a chance to think it over.

Second-guess any claim that doesnt provide its sources or makes one-sided assertions. Be equally suspicious of exaggerated claims, misleading comparisons and claims that single out groups of people by race or background.

If something seems too good or too horrifying to be true, check it out. Someone may be trying to fool you, said Rebecca Rayburn-Reeves, a senior behavioral researcher at Duke Universitys Center for Advanced Hindsight, which develops ways to make people more resilient to misinformation.

Its all about using your critical thinking, Rayburn-Reeves said. Be open-minded, but also skeptical. I say: Be an amiable skeptic.

BE PATIENT! IT TAKES TIME FOR RESULTS TO BE COUNTED

The U.S. has a long history of elections that took days, weeks or even months to settle. Recent increases in the use of mail ballots have only increased the certainty that some races wont be decided Tuesday night.

Election officials in several states have already announced that they expect some results to take longer. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona, election officials cannot begin counting mail ballots until Election Day, guaranteeing delays.

Yet the idea that voting delays equal fraud continues to reverberate online, and is likely to continue spreading long after Election Day thanks to candidates and politicians who have amplified the claim, according to Larry Norden, senior director of the elections and government program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

It leaves room for doubt, and people will take advantage of that, Norden told the AP. Its part of a deliberate effort to undermine confidence in elections.

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Being new on the job as a CFO means youre in the spotlight, and its time to make a good impression. But Tyson Foods Inc. CFO John R. Tyson, the son of the chairman of the companys board of directors, is facing serious allegations a month into his appointment.

Tyson, 32, was arrested this past weekend for public intoxication and criminal trespassing, according to reports. Detainee information released by the Washington County, Ark., sheriffs department states he was arrested in the early morning of Nov. 6 and released later that day. A woman in Fayetteville, Ark. called the police when she found Tyson, whom she said she doesnt know, in a bed in her home, according to local reports by KNWA Fox24. Police said they tried to wake Tyson up at the scene, but he was incoherent, briefly waking up and going back to sleep.

A company spokesperson told KNWA in a statement: This is a personal matter, we have no additional comment. I reached out to Tyson Foods but didnt receive a response as of press time.

Tyson was named EVP and CFO of the Arkansas-based meat company, effective Oct. 2. He is the son of board chairman John H. Tyson and the great-grandson of Tyson founder John W. Tyson. John R. Tyson previously served as the companys EVP of strategy and as chief sustainability officer. Before joining Tyson Foods in 2019, he held various roles in investment banking, private equity, and venture capital, including at J.P. Morgan. Tyson succeeded Stewart Glendinning, who transitioned from his role as EVP and CFO to take on the position of group president of prepared foods. 

The company is scheduled to release its latest 2022 quarterly financial results on Nov. 14. Thats the first time Tyson would participate in an earnings call as CFO. We delivered solid operating income of nearly $1 billion because of our diversified portfolio; year to date, we are up 15% over prior year, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King said in August on the earnings call for the period ending June 30. Overall, earnings per share came in at $1.94 for the third quarter and $7.10 year to date.

Tyson Foods may be a family-founded company, but its also a public company. 

This will be a critical moment for Tyson Foods and corporate governance, Shane Goodwin, associate dean for Executive Education and Graduate Programs at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University, told me. Tyson Foods has a dual-class share structure, which means the family of the founders have tremendous influence over the company, says Goodwin who teaches an MBA corporate ethics course. The Tyson family owns 99.9% of its Class B shares, giving them the ability to outvote the Class A shareholders 10-1, and shareholders know the family has the power, he says.

However, being a public company, Tyson Foods has many stakeholders to consider not only shareholders, but customers, employees, and the community, Goodwin says.

As CFO, Tyson receives an increased base salary of $650,000 and an increase in his target annual incentive payment under the Companys Annual Incentive Compensation Plan for senior executives from 90% to 110% of his annual base salary, with the actual annual incentive payment payable based on performance, according to the companys form 8-K filed on Sept. 27. 

Goodwin says companies should always emphasize ethics for executives, both on and off the clock. There is no exception to this, he says. I know many want their private life to be off limits. And it isunless one is violating laws, rules, ethical judgments, etc. Admittedly, situations are different. The alleged circumstances around this situation are very serious.

I asked Goodwin what approach Tysons CEO and the board should take when it comes to this alleged incident. Everyone is innocent until proven guiltythat is a bedrock of our country, he says. So, I would ensure the process plays out properly. I would follow any policy that we already have in place. Do not change that policy. For example, if the company allows employees to continue working until a legal matter is fully adjudicated, it should continue doing that, he says.  

However, if they have a history of suspending or dismissing employees then they have to follow that precedent, Goodwin says. Personally, in my honest opinion, if I were [the chairman] in this situation, I would immediately suspend my son. This lapse of judgment cannot be tolerated for such a serious job. But Goodwin added, I also believe we live in a world of second chances and we need to support those going through challenging times.

One things for sure, the familys support for Tyson will be watched publicly.

See you tomorrow.

Sheryl Estrada
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Big deal

The latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data found consumer discretionary remained the most shorted sector, with 5.14% short interest. The energy sector, which saw its S&P 500 stocks rally nearly 25% in October on high oil and gas prices, was the second-most shorted U.S. sector at 4.01%. However, short sellers increased their bets against the industrial sector in October, according to the report. As of mid-month, short interest in industrials was at 3.08%, the highest level since 3.19% in mid-July.

Courtesy of S&P Global Market Intelligence

Going deeper

"5 harmful ways women feel they must adapt in corporate America," a report in Harvard Business Review, discusses new research. The authors detail that "high-performing women often pay a hefty pricein the form of intense pressure, mental and physical health issues, and unsustainable workloadsby staying in their jobs," according to the report. Thousands of high-performing professional women were surveyed, revealing five maladaptations most women have endured to rise in corporate America.

Leaderboard

Carl Anderson was appointed CFO at XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE: XPO), effective Nov. 8. Anderson will replace Ravi Tulsyan. Anderson most recently served as CFO of Meritor, Inc., a global supplier of OEM and aftermarket parts. His 25-year career in transportation includes earlier positions with Meritor, a Cummins company, including group vice president, finance; treasurer; and director, international capital markets, market risk management, and corporate insurance. Earlier, with General Motors Acceptance Corporation, he served as senior manager, structured finance, and senior financial analyst for the financial planning group. Anderson began his career as a senior financial analyst with First Chicago Corporation.

Robert J. Stefani as SVP and CFO of Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SWX), effective Nov. 30. Stefani succeeds Gregory J. Peterson, who will retire. Stefani will serve as a member of the Southwest Gas executive team. He comes to the company from PECO Energy, where he was SVP, CFO, and treasurer, with responsibility for all financial activities. Before joining PECO, he served as the VP of corporate development at Exelon, PECO's parent holding company. Stefani also worked within Caterpillar Inc.'s Strategic Investments team. Before his experience in Corporate Development, he worked as an investment banker at Citigroup and Marathon Capital.

Overheard

The clock is ticking. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing, global temperatures keep rising, and our planet is fast approaching the tipping point that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued this alert to audiences at the COP27 climate conference in Egypt on Monday, Fortune reported.

A Christian web designer who contends her religious beliefs prevent her from making wedding websites for gay couples said Monday that her legal battle in the U.S. Supreme Court next month is about protecting everyones right to free speech.

Lorie Smith spoke about her case, which is the latest clash over religion and LGBTQ rights to reach the nations highest court, while sitting in the office she uses for her design company in the Denver suburb of Littleton. The room was adorned with two crosses and a wooden plaque inscribed with a line from Ephesians: I am Gods masterpiece.

Smith claims Colorados anti-discrimination law violates her right to free speech over same-sex marriages, which she maintains are antithetical to her Christian values. Though Smith hasnt yet expanded to her services to include wedding websites with her company, 303 Creative, she said shes dreamed about doing so since she was a child.

Colorado is censoring and compelling my speech, said Smith, who identifies as evangelical non-denominational. Forcing me to communicate, celebrate and create for messages that go against my deeply held beliefs.

Her argument is debatable.

David Cole, national legal director for the ACLU, which opposes Smiths suit, contends that the states anti-discrimination law merely requires businesses offer their services to everyone and does not curtail speech. Smith would be within her right to include a statement on her websites saying that she disagrees with same sex marriage, Cole said, but she cannot refuse to serve customers based on their sexual orientation.

To Cole, a ruling in Smiths favor would be opening Pandoras box.

If 303 Creative prevails here, then any business that can be characterized as expressive, and thats a lot of businesses, can start putting up signs saying no Jews served, no Christians served, no Blacks served, Cole said. We had that practice during Jim Crow, I dont think we want that practice back again.

Smiths case, which is scheduled to be heard on Dec. 5, comes before a U.S. Supreme Court that now has a majority of conservative judges. The court has recently overturned womens constitutional right to an abortion and set a new precedent for gun control regulations in a case in New York.

Cole argues the designer still faces an uphill battle because the court has disagreed with similar arguments in the past.

If the court rules for Lorie Smith it would have to reverse a long line of precedents and break from an unbroken set of cases, Cole said.

Smith, who says shes served LGBTQ clients, claims the lawsuit is not about gay marriage or the customer, only the freedom from being coerced into expressing ideas contrary to her beliefs. She believes a ruling in her favor would protect everyones free speech.

The court has said it would look only at the free speech issue in Smiths case. It said it would decide whether a law that requires an artist to speak or stay silent violates the free speech clause of the First Amendment.

The impetus to file her lawsuit challenging Colorados law, Smith said, was not just about her own business but also what she said was the way the state pushed others of her faith to act against their beliefs, such as cake baker Jack Phillips.

Phillips, who had refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple in 2012, also faced off in the high court against Colorado. A 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision gave Phillips a partial victory, saying that the Colorado Civil Rights Commission had acted with anti-religious bias against Phillips. But it did not rule on the larger issue of whether a business can invoke religious objections to refuse service to LGBTQ people.

I dont think I really have another choice than to stand up not only for my right but the rights of others, said Smith. That includes myself as an artist and it also includes the LGBT web designer who should not be forced to create and design messages that oppose same sex marriage.

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