In a speech Saturday kicking off the second day of the Shangri-La Dialogue, which brings together more than 600 military leaders, policy makers and analysts from 40 nations, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin warned China that a conflict over Taiwan would be devastating and chided Beijing for failing to engage in substantive dialogue. 

At a dinner Friday night, Austin shook hands with his Chinese counterpart, Li Shangfu, who had declined a formal meeting unless the US removed sanctions placed on him. 

Austin spoke as the US Navy conducted a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait, a move that China regularly finds provocative. The action showed the potential for miscalculation between the two sides as relations remain strained over Taiwan, US curbs on advanced chips and Beijings diplomatic support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Reznikovs pointed remark on Russias war (6:36 p.m.)

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov ended one of the final panels on Saturday with a pointed remark about Chinas influence over Russia that was aimed at former Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai, who was seated next to him. 

Reznikov said he believed there was a new understanding between Russia and China after President Xi Jinping visited Moscow earlier this year, with Beijing becoming the older brother in the relationship between the two nations. 

Could you say to your younger brother to stop killing Ukrainians, Reznikov said in his concluding remarks.

Former China envoy criticizes US and Europe (5:20 p.m.)

Former envoy to the US Cui Tiankai criticized Europes mismanagement of its own security situation, urging it instead to learn from Asia. The best thing you can do for us is to do nothing, Cui said, addressing Europe and America.

We should also learn something very important something from your lack of success in managing the security situation, he said. We dont need an Asian NATO.

China has long sympathized with Russias reasons for invading Ukraine, particularly to push back against NATO, while opposing the war itself. The US has repeatedly said its not looking to create a version of NATO in Asia, even as it strengthens alliances to deter China from taking Taiwan and other disputed territory by force.

Ukraine Minister Brushes Off Indonesian Peace Plan (5:03 p.m.)

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said the country doesnt need the strange peace plan offered by his Indonesian counterpart during an earlier panel discussion. 

It sounds like a Russian plan, not an Indonesian plan, Reznikov said, referring to the proposal put forward by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. We need to win this war, after that we will negotiate with the Kremlin regime or new leader. 

Prabowo said his plan would involve freezing Russian and Ukrainian forces in place and creating a demilitarized zone between them. 

Austin, Li listen to one another speak over lunch (3:30p.m.)

Austin and Chinese counterpart Li listened to one another speak during a ministerial lunch, Singapores Minister for Defense Ng Eng Hen told reporters. The two defense leaders havent held a direct meeting, but Ng said he thought their presence at the forum could go some way to helping resume physical talks at some point.

The fact that they sat on the same table last night, that they sat across each other over lunch and heard each other speak, you have a measure of the man, the thinking, the proclivities, the temperament, he said. Hopefully itll add to the databank when they do finally engage.

China Says US Deceiving and Exploiting Region (2:40 p.m.)

An official with Chinas Central Military Commission pushed back on Austins criticisms of Chinas actions in Asia and said the US is deceiving and exploiting regional countries. 

The US pursues its selfish interest, regardless of other countries aspirations for stability and good order, and uses them as a pawn by cajolement and coercion, said Jing Jianfeng, deputy chief of the joint staff department of the Central Military Commission. Fundamentally, this is to maintain the system of US supremacy and hegemony.

Tan went on to defend Chinas military exercises around Taiwan, saying they are targeted at separatist forces and the interference of external forces, a reference to the US. 

UK Praises Positive Talks With China (1:43 p.m.)

UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace emerged from an hour-long conversation with Chinas delegation saying talks were productive and that he looked forward to visiting the country soon, without saying when that trip would occur. 

The two sides discussed freedom of navigation, Taiwan, deepening engagement, Wallace told reporters afterwards. Echoing US comments, Wallace said its important to communicate and have clear lines of discussion. 

The defense chief added that he was grateful for Chinas efforts to restrain Russia on Ukraine, adding that the war in Europe showed the importance of always having a route to try and deconflict or indeed to understand each others intentions. 

Indonesia Says Asia Knows Costs of War (1:12 p.m.)

Indonesia Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto passionately defended a new peace proposal for Ukraine that would leave Russian forces locked in place, saying Asian nations know the costs of war as well or better than their European counterparts. 

The two-time presidential candidate said Indonesia wasnt trying to take sides on who is right or wrong in the conflict, and he reiterated that his nation voted at the United Nations to oppose Russias invasion. 

Ask our Vietnamese friends, our Vietnamese brothers, ask our Cambodian brothers, ask them how many times theyve been invaded, Prabowo said. Ask Indonesians how many times theyve been invaded. We know war.

Australia Says US Allies Can Have Good China Ties (12:52 p.m.)

Australia seeks to balance its economic and security relationship with China even as it maintains a longstanding defense alliance with the US at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, according to Defense Minister Richard Marles.

How you navigate those two things is complex, its not obvious, it requires discussion, Marles said in an interview in Singapore Saturday with Bloomberg Televisions Haslinda Amin. We can be an ally of the United States and we can build a productive relationship with China. We firmly believe that is possible and thats the line we seek to pursue.

Chinese Delegate Says Austin Looked Agitated (12:04 p.m.)

Zhao Xiaozhuo, a senior fellow with the Institute of War Studies affiliated with the Peoples Liberation Army, said that Austins remarks on not meeting with Li showed he cared a lot and he was a bit agitated.

Talking is possible, but do not bring the aggressive attitude, he said. The US should stop containing China, especially stop interfering with Chinas internal affairs on the Taiwan issue. Then China is willing to talk.

Zhao added that the military hotline between the nations was open and communication can take place at anytime.

Indonesia Presents Ukraine Peace Plan (11:36 a.m.)

Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a two-time presidential candidate, presented a new peace proposal that included similar elements to one unveiled by Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

The proposal included a cease-fire and a withdrawal from key positions to create a new dimilitarized zone enforced by troops under the authority of the United Nations. The UN would then conduct a referendum in disputed areas, Prabowo said. 

Ukraine and its backers have rejected any proposal that would allow Russia to consolidate territorial gains. 

UK Touts Importance of Indo-Pacific Trade Deal (10:59 a.m.)

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace touted the importance of the countrys bid to join an Indo-Pacific trade deal that American politicians have spurned after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from talks in 2017. 

Free trade and openness have benefited billions of people in the region, Wallace said in speaking about the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The UK has concluded negotiations to join the agreement and is waiting to officially sign up. 

I would say either, youre in it or youre not, Wallace said of the trade deal. Were in it, and well do everything we can to make sure we live up to the spirit.

China Says It Wont Take Orders From US (10:42 a.m.)

A Chinese military official said it was unfair for the US to maintain sanctions on Chinas defense minister, adding that the Biden administration bore full responsibility for the lack of a high-level meeting in Singapore. 

Now the US keeps challenging Chinas bottom line and destroying the US-China relationship, He Lei, a lieutenant general with the Peoples Liberation Army, told reporters at the Shangri-La Dialogue. With such an atmosphere, a meeting between the Chinese and the US ministers during the dialogue doesnt have a mature time or correct condition.

He said a handshake between Li and Austin showed the flexibility of the Chinese side, but it was necessary for the US to correct its wrongdoings. He added that mid-level talks were still taking place between the two nations.

Noting that Austins speech appeared more moderate than at last years gathering, He said the US still shouldnt be commenting on Taiwan or the South China Sea something no US administration would do. 

China wont take orders during its peaceful rise, He said.

US Conducts Transit Through Taiwan Strait (10:26 a.m.)

The US Navy is conducting a transit through the Taiwan Strait as military leaders gather in Singapore for a regional defense meeting, according to an official who asked not to be identified said Saturday. 

Philippines Warns Over Return of Iron Curtain (10:03 a.m.)

A senior defense official of the Philippines expressed concern that growing distrust would lead to the return of the Iron Curtain. 

Decoupling amid the declining state of goodwill in the region would only serve to bring about the return of the Iron Curtain that will undermine any potential or confidence building and cooperation between and among us, said Carlito Galvez Jr, senior undersecretary at the Department of National Defense in the Philippines.

Pentagon Chief Chides China Over Lack of Talks (9:28 a.m.)

Austin used a speech at Asias biggest security conference to warn that a conflict over Taiwan would affect the global economy in ways that we cannot imagine while reiterating calls for greater communication between the American and Chinese militaries. 

Make no mistake: conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating, Austin said. The whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, the whole world. The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains depends on it.

Read more: Pentagon Chief Warns China on Taiwan, Says Time For Talks is Now

For responsible defense leaders, the time to talk is every time, and the right time to talk is now, Austin added. Im deeply concerned that the PRC has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries. But I hope that will change, and soon. 

Asked during a question-and-answer session about Chinas growing stock of nuclear weapons, Austin again referred to the lack of talks: As soon as they answer the phone maybe well get some work done.

Austin Hails US Alliances, Partnerships (8:45 a.m.)

Austin lauded the USs moves to strengthen alliances and partnerships across the Indo-Pacific region, telling delegates the Biden administration is working together with our friends more closely every day. 

He noted the US was stepping up coordination and training throughout the region, touting cooperation with India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore in addition to traditional American treaty allies. 

Around the region, countries are matching their words with their actions, insisting on resolving differences through dialogue, and calling for even closer cooperation, Austin said.

Albanese Says War Not Pre-Ordained (9:02 p.m.)

Albanese called for the US and China to boost dialogue in his keynote address to the forum. He and warned that it was harmful to assume war between the two powers was inevitable.

The fate of our region is not preordained. It never was and it never is, he said.

US, China Defense Chiefs Shake Hands (8:08 p.m.)

Austin and Li briefly shook hands and exchanged words before Albaneses speech. They were seated at the same table for the event. 

A senior US defense official said the handshake was good, but no substitute for sitting down and having a meaningful exchange. Their next meeting should be a serious and substantive dialogue, the official said. 

With assistance from Alfred Cang, Xiao Zibang, Jamie Tarabay and Peter Martin.

While the furious expansion of solar generation bodes well for efforts to replace fossil fuels, the breakthrough also exposed flaws in the energy system. Power prices turned negative during some of Mays sunniest days as grid operators struggled to handle the surge. 

This summer will be something well have to look at like its a postcard from the future, said Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu, analyst at BloombergNEF. The biggest message will be: were not ready.

Although solar was a fast and easy solution to respond to last years energy crisis triggered by Russias moves to squeeze natural gas supplies, the downside is the technology is best in sunny months when demand is typically lower. Systems to store that energy in batteries or by creating green hydrogen arent advanced enough to allow summer sun to keep lights on at night or help heat homes in the winter. 

Nowhere is the solar boom and the adjustment risks clearer than in the Netherlands. There are over 100 megawatts of solar panels for every 100,000 Dutch residents, double the deployment of sunny Spain and more than triple the rate in China by far the global leader in total solar capacity. 

The Netherlands claim to the densest solar network on Earth is thanks largely to long-running government support. The program rewards households for installing solar panels, with every watt of electricity offsetting energy bills, regardless of whether usage matches up with the sunniest parts of the day. 

The Dutch government did this to stimulate solar panels, but its a little too successful, said Jorrit de Jong, spokesman at Dutch electric grid operator TenneT, who has seven roof-top solar panels that produce at least 80% of his annual household electricity consumption. If I do my laundry or charge my car at moments when there isnt sun, it doesnt matter for me because I get paid by my energy company. 

The government in the Netherlands plans to change the system starting in 2025. Under new rules, households that send power back to the grid would be able to deduct a declining amount from their annual bill. By 2031, producers would only benefit from power they actually consume and not get compensated for any excess.

Across Europe, people are following the Dutch example. Since the start of Russias invasion of Ukraine, installations of solar panels in the EU have accelerated. In May, production rose 10% compared to the previous year to reach a record 27 terawatt hours.

In contrast to wind, hydro or geothermal power, solar has a key advantage of being quick to install. All it takes is an incentive for homeowners or property companies to turn roofs into mini energy parks. But electricity grids were set up around massive generators that could work in tandem with grid operators to keep networks balanced. A more distributed system is harder to manage and will be tested in earnest this summer.

While record solar and wind production have helped drive out coal and gas plants at an impressive rate this year, the EU still has a long way to go to reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Germany is under even more pressure, with Europes biggest power market aiming for a decarbonized grid by 2035. Getting there will require not only a massive expansion of clean energy, but also changes that better align consumption with generation. 

There are already signs of a mismatch between supply and demand. Last weekend, electricity prices turned negative at times as solar output hit a record in Germany, Europes biggest producer. Negative prices arent unheard of and are typically linked to strong wind generation at night or on weekends when demand is thin. 

When theres a surge in power, suppliers have to pay consumers to use electricity. It doesnt mean 100% of the power is coming from renewables. Some conventional plants cant flexibly switch on and off or are required to run to maintain grid stability. 

Increasing price swings and persistent low or negative rates during peak production periods for renewable power could put further investment at risk, according to Axel Thiemann, chief executive officer of Sonnedix, one of Europes biggest solar developers.

Since the end of 2021, Sonnedix has roughly doubled its pipeline of European projects, but Thiemann warned development will get more difficult without changes to how power is managed.

As more investment gets realized, the grid will get more and more saturated during certain parts of the day in the summer, he said in an interview. Even if you have unlimited amounts of solar projects that are permitted, they will not be built unless theres a clear route to market.

Better coping with the ebb and flow of renewable generation will require a new kind of flexibility in the power system, which wasnt necessary when all electricity came from a few giant fossil fuel and nuclear plants that could be turned up or down depending on demand. 

Our current power system wasnt planned for these kinds of flexibility needs, said Thorsten Lenck, project manager at Berlin-based think tank Agora Energiewende. 

There are various ways to adapt. Batteries connected to the grid could use power during the sunniest or windiest parts of the day to sell when renewables arent producing as much. Consumers could also be incentivized to use power during times of peak production. That could be particularly important as more electric vehicles hit the roads and households switch from traditional boilers to heat pumps. 

Were going to have an unprecedented amount of solar production this summer and it tends to increase the volatility in power prices, said Joke Steinwart, analyst at Aurora Energy Research. This presents big opportunities for flexible technologies like batteries.

Credit scoring assesses the likelihood of default

Lenders stay in business when borrowers pay back loans.

Some borrowers consistently make prompt payments, while others are slow to repay, and still others default meaning they do not pay back the money they borrowed. Lenders have a strong business incentive to separate loans that will be paid back from loans that might be paid back.

So how do lenders distinguish between good borrowers and risky ones? They rely on various proprietary credit scoring systems that use past borrower repayment history and other factors to predict the likelihood of future repayment. The three organizations that monitor credit scores in the U.S. are Transunion, Experian and Equifax.

Although 26 million of 258 million credit-eligible Americans lack a credit score, anyone who has ever opened a credit card or other credit account, like a loan, has one. Most people dont have a credit score before turning 18, which is usually the age applicants can begin opening credit cards in their own name. However, some people still have no credit later in life if they dont have any accounts for reporting agencies to assess.

Credit scores simply summarize how well individuals repay debt over time. Based on that repayment behavior, the credit scoring system assigns people a single number ranging from 300 to 850. A credit score ranging from 670 to 739 is generally considered to be good, a score in the range of 580 to 669 would be judged fair, and a score less than 579 is classified poor, or subprime.

The two most important factors in credit scores are how promptly past debts have been paid and the amount the individual owes on current debt. The score also takes into account the mix and length of credit, in addition to how new it is.

Credit scores can help lenders decide what interest rate to offer consumers. And they can affect banks decisions concerning access to mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

Recent improvements in consumer credit scores

Average credit scores in the United States have risen from 688 in 2005 to 716 as of August of 2021. They stayed steady at that level through 2022.

While credit card debt is at a record high, the average consumer was using just over a fourth of the revolving credit to which they had access as of September 2022.

As of 2021, nearly half of U.S. consumers had scores considered very good  meaning in the range of 740 to 799 or excellent (800-850). Six in 10 Americans have a score above 700, consistent with the general trend of record-setting credit scores of the past few years. These trends might, in part, reflect new programs that are designed to note when individuals pay bills like rent and utilities on time, which can help boost scores.

During the first quarter of 2023, people taking out new mortgages had an average credit score of 765, which is one point lower than a year ago but still higher than the pre-pandemic average of 760.

Credit score evolution from the 1980s to the 2020s

Developed in the late 1950s, the first credit scores FICO scores were created to build a computerized, objective measure to help lenders make lending decisions. Before then, bankers relied on commercial credit reporting, the same system merchants used to evaluate the creditworthiness of potential customers based on relationships and subjective evaluation.

The FICO credit scoring system was enhanced over the 1960s and 70s, and lenders grew to trust computerized credit evaluation systems. Credit scores really began to exert an influence on American borrowers beginning in the 1980s as FICO become widely used.

A major goal of the credit score is to expand the pool of potential borrowers while minimizing the overall default rate of the pool. In this way, lenders can maximize the number of loans they make. Still, credit scores are imperfect predictors, likely because most credit models assume that consumers will continue to act in the same way in the future as they have in the past. In addition, some believe that various risk factors make credit scores imperfect. Credit modelers, however, continue to make progress by making continuous technological innovations. Even FinTech lenders, which strive to go beyond traditional credit models, heavily rely on credit scores to set their interest rates.

Recently, Buy Now, Pay Later accounts have been added to credit scoring, while medical debt has been removed.

Credit scores might seem scary but can be useful

Borrowers with poor or limited credit have challenges building more positive credit histories and good credit scores. This challenge is particularly important because credit scores have become more widely used than ever because of the increasing availability of data and growing precision of credit models.

The availability of additional data results in more precise estimates of credit scoring, which can improve access to credit for consumers who repay bills consistently over time. These so-called boost programs factor in other payments that consumers routinely make on a monthly schedule. Think of the number of bills that you auto pay. Boost programs add points to your credit score for the bills that you pay consistently.

You can improve your credit score by making wise decisions

Two of the most important ways to improve credit scores are paying bills on time and ensuring that your credit report accurately reflects your payment history. Simply avoiding default is not enough. Timely payments are necessary. Someone who pays the bills every three months is caught up every quarter. But that consumer is 90 days delinquent four times a year. Being 90 days delinquent alarms creditors. So, someone who pays the bills every month will have a higher credit score at the end of the year.

Having more credit accounts can also positively affect your credit score because having these accounts shows that many lenders find you creditworthy. As a result, you might benefit from leaving credit accounts open if you make the wise decision not to access that credit. Warning! You must not use that extra credit access to spend more money and accumulate more debt. That decision is unwise.

Why? Because managing the ratio of debt to income is also critical to a good credit score. Debt-to-income ratios of 36% or less generally indicate individuals who have income to put toward savings, which is what all lenders are looking to see and one of the best ways to improve your credit.

D. Brian Blank is an assistant professor of finance at Mississippi State University

Tom Miller Jr. is professor of finance at Mississippi State University