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90% of China could get COVID, warns one of Beijing's top medical advisors

Investors and businesses may be welcoming Chinas surprise pivot from years of COVID-era lockdowns, mass testing and isolation, but one of the countrys top medical advisors is warning itll come with a cost: a massive wave of COVID case that will occur as containment measures are lifted.

On Wednesday, Beijing announced sweeping changes to its COVID restrictions. Mild and asymptomatic cases would be allowed to isolate at home, rather than be sent to government isolation facilities. Officials would no longer require PCR tests and the ubiquitous health code app to enter public venues or travel between Chinese cities. Lockdowns would be limited to individual floors or buildings, rather than entire districts.

Feng Zijian, a former deputy head of Chinas Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and one of Beijings key medical advisors, predicted on Tuesday that 60% of China might be infected with COVID in an initial surge of cases as China loosens its policies.

By the time the disease makes its way through the population, as much as 90% of China would have been infected, he continued.

By comparison, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in April that 60% of Americans had contracted COVID-19, up from 34% the previous December.

Its going to be inevitable for most of us to get infected once, regardless of how the COVID-fighting measures are adjusted, Feng said on Tuesday.

How bad could Chinas COVID wave get?

A inevitable surge in COVID cases would complicate Chinas path out of COVID-zero. Beijing has avoided the massive outbreaks seen in just about every other country with a toughand unpopularpolicy of lockdowns, mass testing, and border controls.

Yet experts note that Chinas containment of COVID means the Chinese population lacks the immunity found in other countries, which may allow the disease to quickly spread once measures are lifted.

China could face millions of daily new cases for a few months, which would be orders of magnitude more than the highest number the country has witnessed thus far, warned Goldman Sachs in a research note on Sunday, before Chinas announced its new rules.

Chinas low rates of vaccination among the elderly may also make an outbreak more deadly. Only 40% of those over 80 have received a third vaccine dose.

China has pledged to vaccinate more of its elderly population, but it may not be fast enough. If they really speed up, China could vaccinate 70% of its over-80 population by the end of the year, yet many people will probably die, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for investment bank Natixis, recently told Fortune.

One model predicted that China could report up to 20,000 COVID deaths a day if it reopened at its current pace.

An uncontrolled outbreak might also create new COVID variants, Anthony Fauci, the White Houses chief medical advisor, warned on Wednesday.

Why is China reopening now?

But Beijing likely couldnt afford to put off reopening any longer, as Chinas economy buckles under the weight of snap lockdowns and travel restrictions. The countrys economy is expected to miss Beijings 2022 GDP growth target of 5.5%: a Bloomberg poll of economists gives a consensus estimate of just 3.2% GDP growth for the year.

Novembers record COVID outbreak dragged the economy down further, as officials hastily imposed lockdowns in a bid to control cases. Chinas exports fell by 8.7% year-on-year in November, its steepest decline in over two years and far worse than analyst expectations of a 3.5% drop.

COVID disruptions are unnerving foreign companies that rely on the country for manufacturing. After a COVID outbreak in the manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou, Chinas iPhone City, Apple is now reportedly considering using factories in other countries like India and Vietnam.

China cannot afford to lose the jobs offered by foreign companies, Garcia-Herrero previously told Fortune.

Protests in Chinese cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou over the weekend of Nov. 26 also likely accelerated the governments decision to ease measures.

But economists warn that even an earlier-than-expected reopening wont spark an immediate economic rebound. A massive outbreak, even without a large death toll, would disrupt Chinas economy as COVID-stricken workers stay home.

Lots of people will get sick, which could result in factory closures or facilities being unable to run at full capacity, Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist for Pinpoint Asset Management, told the South China Morning Post on Monday.

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How Land O'Lakes convinced its farmers to embrace A.I.

Beyond the technical challenges of incorporating artificial intelligence into their internal systems, companies face another quandary: how to get employees to buy into the changes that A.I. can bring.

At Fortunes Brainstorm A.I. conference in San Francisco on Monday, Teddy Bekele, CTO of agricultural cooperative Land OLakes, and Fiona Tan, CTO of online furniture retailer Wayfair LLC, compared and contrasted how workers at their companies have embracedor raised an eyebrow atefforts to introduce A.I. into the supply chain.

Land OLakes is using A.I. to approximate the supply and demand of different products at different times of year. The technology has become a tool used directly by the companys farmers. Farmers see it as assisting their decisions, not replacing their expertise, Bekele says. Yet getting the farmers fully on-board takes some convincing, he says, since planting and harvesting are high-stakes decisions. Farmers will always try things, theyre entrepreneurs at heart, Bekele explained. However, to fully adopt it in their operation, they want to make sure the solution really works.

Some A.I. models can seem counterintuitive to farmers at first. Bekele brought up the example of using A.I. models to determine the best locations to plant crops based on climate, topography, and soil. At times, the A.I. suggestion differs from where farmers have planted crops in the past. On paper, [the A.I. model] doesnt sound right, Bekele says. But with some explanation, farmers come around to the idea.

A.I. can also serve as a sort of second opinion for farmers. They input their own data into the A.I. tools and use the system to confirm their own instincts.

Wayfair is a digitally-native company so its employees are fairly open to adopting new tech, yet Tan says that a tech-savvy workforce can become frustrated that A.I. doesnt move faster. Sometimes theres impatience for the models to work immediately, Tan said. Its not like its deployed today and its all going to work magically, she said.

When Wayfair adds A.I. to internal processes, it starts with low-stakes tasks to mitigate the risk of errors and ensures humans are still checking the technologys work, Tan says. For example, in marketing, the worst that can happen is you pay too much for a bid, so thats something we can tolerate, she said. Yet other areas, like when looking at images or text for the product to ascertain the quality of the furniture, well have models give a suggestion or recommendation, and humans can go back and make sure it looks good, she said.

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Heres how to invest $1,000

When you come into an unexpected $1,000 windfall, whether through a bonus, gift, or for any other reason, it can be tempting to just spend the cash. But you may want to consider other options including investing to maximize the value of the money over the long term.

Wealth advisors say there are many ways to make the most of $1,000 if you choose to invest, including short and long-term options that can put the money to work for you.

How to invest $1,000

For many types of investments, you dont need a great deal to get startedmeaning even with $1,000 there are several possibilities. The options include contributing to individual retirement accounts (IRAs), investing in the stock market through a traditional brokerage account or robo-advisor, and even squirreling the money away in a high-yield savings account.

$1000 can go toward a lot of thingspaying off debt, saving for a rainy day, or stepping into the market. We believe that investments matter, but its how youre invested that matters more, says Heather Winston, certified financial planner, CWS, and director of product, advice, and planning at Principal Financial Group.

Save for retirement

If youre looking to invest $1,000 with perhaps mid- and long-term goals in mind, an IRA can provide a great deal of value. The most common options are traditional and Roth IRAs, which allow you to prepare for retirement and have various tax benefits.

Funds deposited in a traditional IRA can be deducted from ones gross income the year in which they are contributed, says Andrew Crowell, financial advisor and vice chairman of wealth management at D.A. Davidson. Further, all earnings and capital gains that are achieved while the funds are in the IRA are free of annual taxes.

Traditional IRA contributions are taxed only when they are withdrawn in retirement. The combination of a current year tax reduction coupled with years of tax-free compounding until withdrawal makes IRA contributions a compelling choice.

Roth contributions are funded with after-tax dollars and thus will not reduce your annual tax bill but once deposited the money is able to grow tax-free. And depending upon your age and financial circumstances, a Roth IRA may also offer tax advantages worth considering.

Similar to traditional IRAs, funds in a Roth IRA are not subject to annual taxes on earnings and capital gains, and they have the added benefit of withdrawals in retirement being tax-free, says Crowell. Further, there are no required minimum distributions (RMDs) from Roth IRAs, which allows those funds to compound even longer.

The money contributed to an IRA can be invested in various assets such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs. Self-directed IRAs allow you to control the investment choices while others have a predetermined set of investment options. No matter which type you choose, the annual returns from IRAs can be advantageous.

These accounts allow you to grow your wealth and curb inflationary impacts, which is a key consideration in the current economic environment, says Winston. This is a great way to save for your future self. You can assume, on average, a 6% to 7% rate of return in a well-diversified [IRA] investment portfolio over your lifetime.

Invest in the stock market

The stock market also offers a variety of options for investing $1,000, which can be done through a traditional brokerage account. These accounts provide various investment options but can also come with higher risks depending on the types of investments you choose.

Traditional brokerage accounts typically offer a wide array of investment options, says Crowell. The range of investments and flexibility these accounts offer make them attractive.

This includes exchange-traded funds or ETFs, which are an asset that packages a mix of securities, often stocks or bonds. ETFs are typically designed to track a specific index, such as the S&P 500.

EFTs offer investors diversification while still allowing for the targeting of certain sectors and investment styles, says Crowell. Unlike mutual funds, which trade once daily after financial markets close, ETFs trade during market hours just like stocks of individual companies. As such, ETFs allow an investor to time their purchase or sale to take advantage of extreme market moves either up or down.

For those who dont want to start smaller, fractional shares allow for buying small portions of a stock. For example, if a companys stock trades at $1,500 per share, which would make it impossible to purchase even one share, you could instead purchase a fractional share of that stock.

Fractional shares would allow this same investor [who has $1,000] the ability to purchase fractional shares across a number of companies, says Crowell.

Finally, if youd like to take an entirely hands-off approach with your $1,000 investment, robo- advisors are another choice. These types of platforms do all of the investing for you based on your short- and long-term goals and financial objectives.

Stash it in a deposit account with a high APY

Admittedly not an investment, but for those who want their money to earn interest without taking on any risk, a high-yield savings account is a very safe choice. The marketplace of high-yield savings accounts has proliferated in recent years and there are countless options, particularly from online-only banks and financial institutions, that offer extremely competitive interest ratessome as high as 4% or more.

If you dont mind your money being locked away for several months or years, certificates of deposit (CDs) are another type of deposit account that offers extremely generous interest. Some online-only banks offer CD rates as high as 4.75% or more.

Another option: Pay off debt or build up your emergency fund

Paying off debt or adding money to your emergency fund is not an investment option either, but can sometimes be more beneficial given your current circumstances.

In financial planning, we have to expect the unexpected, says Winston. That means setting aside money for those surprise expenses or unavoidable life events should be a top priority.

The rule of thumb is to have three to six months worth of living expenses available in savings, so tucking away $1,000 to build up your emergency fund will always be a solid decision. Just make sure to keep your emergency fund in an account thats accessible and liquid so that you are able to pull from it when you need it the most.

Paying down debt meanwhile, can provide you with financial freedom. Particularly in todays high-interest rate environmentwhere debt can quickly spiral out of control paying off debt is an investment in your financial future.

Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott on how AI language models can democratize education: It creates a bunch of opportunity

If youve been on the internet this week, youve likely seen the buzz about ChatGPT, AI firm Open AIs advanced, human-sounding chatbot that was released for public use last week. As users marveled at the chatbots ability to answer complex questions and even make jokes, many are hypothesizing what the implications will be for higher education as well as the future of work. At Fortunes Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco, CTO of Microsoft Kevin Scott explained what the potential is for powerful AI language models to make information more accessible.

Scott emphasized that one important aspect of AI models is its ability to help individuals and businesses create complex code without necessarily having to get a degree in computer science. Microsoft has its own AI platform, GitHub, which is a coding assistant the company built with OpenAI. You dont need to have a PhD in computer science anymore to build an AI application, which I think is really, really exciting, he said. I went back home to rural Central Virginia, where I grew up, and I talked to a bunch of people who had an entrepreneurial mindset, and given these tools, even without computer science degrees, these folks will be able to see the opportunities and they will absolutely be able to incorporate them into their businesses, he said. To me, that feels really exciting.

He also emphasized the potential for AI language models applies to an array of professional uses beyond coding. You will have lots and lots of these [models], helping people with a pretty wide range of tasks, whether you are a video editor or trying to pull together a piece of content or youre a journalist doing research or writing an article.

While AI language models sound impressively human, Scott emphasized that these models are tools, not replacements, for human workers and educators. Scott explained that AI language models can function using tools like Chat GPT is to help articulate information more clearly, which Scott referred to as prompt engineering. He acknowledged that these chat bots can be wrong, and therefore it is up to the user to give the model accurate information to work with.

To Scott, the fact that users must have context and information to correctly prompt engineer is a boon for students using AI to cheat on essays and other homework assignments as the tools become more advanced. He argued that to create an accurate essay using AI, the student still has to learn the material. So in a sense, like, nothing really is changing here, he explained of using AI in education. You have this tool, and now the student themselves has to become the teacher to the model, he said.

I think it will be a more much more accessible way for people to get real power out of their technology, he added.

LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman on the power of A.I.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Workers in every profession can expect "human amplification" from A.I. within the next five years.

Dr. Fauci is worried that China's retreat from COVID zero comes with risks

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Bidens chief medical adviser, warned about the risks of Chinas planned retreat from its zero COVID policyand reiterated that the pandemic isnt over.

On Wednesday, China eased some of its quarantine requirements in a move away from its zero COVID policy that has, at times, included lockdowns of major cities. The move comes after anti-government protests that erupted throughout China over the strict anti-COVID measures.

But to reopen without the widespread adoption of vaccines particularly western vaccines that are considered more effective than Beijingswould be a huge risk, Fauci said.

If they dont do things like mount and implement a proactive vaccination campaign, and you open up, you are going to have a wave of infections which are certainly going to be associated with a certain degree of severity of disease, Fauci told the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference on Wednesday.

Experts previously told Fortune that because of Chinas zero COVID approach, its population has limited immunity from infection due to an overall lack of exposure. That coupled with low vaccination rates among its older residents and less effective vaccinesas Fauci saidcould trigger a huge wave of infections.

If that happens, theres an increased chance of mutations, Fauci said, that could create new variants. New variants can sometimes spread more quickly than the original virus, as seen with Omicron.

Whenever you have a large wave of transmissions of a virus, you give it ample opportunity to mutate, he said. And when you give a virus opportunity to mutate, that allows it to form potentially new variants. And once you get a brand new variant that could have an impact on the rest of the world.

Still Fauci said that Chinas strategy was flawed from the beginning because the country didnt use its lockdowns to vaccinate its population. In an interview with the Washington Post last week, Fauci said policies like Chinas zero COVID should come with an end game and a purpose.

In the era of vaccination, you might want to restrict until you can get your population in totality vaccinated, particularly the highly vulnerable elderly individuals, but as it turned out, thats not what happened, he said. The vaccination of the elderly has not been well performed, and the vaccine they have has been not a particularly effective vaccine.

Fauci advised that Chinas citizens be given more effective vaccines.

I would suggest that they import western ones, particularly the highly effective mRNA vaccines that are used in most countries in the world, he said. Unfortunately, the original Chinese vaccines did not have the level of efficacy of some of the other vaccines.

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Judge sentences former Theranos executive 'Sunny' Balwani to nearly 13 years in prison over blood testing scandal

A judge on Wednesday sentenced former Theranos executive Ramesh Sunny Balwani to nearly 13 years in prison for his role in the companys blood-testing hoax a sentence slightly longer than that given to the CEO, who was his lover and accomplice in one of Silicon Valleys biggest scandals.

Balwani was convicted in July of fraud and conspiracy connected to the companys bogus medical technology that duped investors and endangered patients. His sentencing came less than three weeks after Elizabeth Holmes, the companys founder and CEO, received more than 11 years in prison for her part in the scheme.

The scandal revolved around the companys false claims to have developed a device that could scan for hundreds of diseases and other potential problems with just a few drops of blood taken with a finger prick.

The case threw a bright light on Silicon Valleys dark side, exposing how its culture of hype and boundless ambition could veer into lies.

Holmes, 38, could have gotten up to 20 years in prison a penalty that U.S. District Judge Edward Davila could have imposed on Balwani, who spent six years as Theranos chief operating officer while remaining romantically involved with Holmes until a bitter split in 2016.

While on the witness stand in her trial, Holmes accused Balwani, 57, of manipulating her through years of emotional and sexual abuse. Balwanis attorney has denied the allegations.

The two trials had somewhat different outcomes. Unlike Balwani, Holmes was acquitted on several charges of defrauding and conspiring against people who paid for Theranos blood tests that produced misleading results and could have pointed patients toward the wrong treatment. The jury in Holmes trial also deadlocked on three charges.

Balwani was convicted on all 12 felony counts, and his lawyers sought a far more lenient sentence of just four to 10 months in prison. Prosecutors for the Justice Department asked for 15 years. A probation report recommended nine years.

Duncan Levin, a former federal prosecutor who is now a defense attorney, described Balwanis bid for a light sentence as utterly unrealistic. Levin suspects the judge may give greater weight to the Justice Department and the probation office recommendations, which mirror the sentences those agencies sought for Holmes.

The judge ultimately gave her 11 1/4 years in prison and recommended that the sentence be served in a low-security facility in Byran, Texas.

Federal prosecutors also want the judge to order Balwani to pay $804 million in restitution to defrauded investors the same amount sought from Holmes. Davila deferred a decision on restitution during Holmes Nov. 18 sentencing until an unspecified future date.

In court documents, Balwanis lawyers painted him as a hardworking immigrant who moved from India to the U.S. during the 1980s to become the first member of his family to attend college. He graduated from the University of Texas in 1990 with a degree in information systems.

He later moved to Silicon Valley, where he first worked as a computer programmer for Microsoft before founding an online startup that he sold for millions of dollars during the dot-com boom of the 1990s.

Balwani and Holmes met around the same time she dropped out of Stanford University to start Theranos in 2003. He became enthralled with her and her quest to revolutionize health care.

Balwanis lawyers said he eventually invested about $5 million in a stake in Theranos that eventually became worth about $500 million on paper a fraction of Holmes one-time fortune of of $4.5 billion.

That wealth evaporated after Theranos began to unravel in 2015 amid revelations that its blood-testing technology never worked as Holmes had boasted in glowing magazine articles that likened her to Silicon Valley visionaries such as Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.

Before Theranos downfall, Holmes teamed up with Balwani to raise nearly $1 billion from deep-pocketed investors that included software mogul Larry Ellison and media magnate Rupert Murdoch.

Mr. Balwani is not the same as Elizabeth Holmes, his lawyers wrote in a memo to the judge. He actually invested millions of dollars of his own money; he never sought fame or recognition; and he has a long history of quietly giving to those less fortunate. Balwanis lawyers also asserted that Holmes was dramatically more culpable for the Theranos fraud.

Echoing similar claims made by Holmess lawyers before her sentencing, Balwanis attorneys also argued that he has been adequately punished by the intense media coverage of Theranos, which has been the subject of a book, documentary and award-winning TV series.

Balwani has lost his career, his reputation and his ability to meaningfully work again, his lawyers wrote.

Federal prosecutors cast Balwani as a ruthless, power-hungry accomplice in crimes that ripped off investors and imperiled people who received flawed results. The blood tests were to be available in a partnership with Walgreens that Balwani helped engineer.

Balwani presented a fake story about Theranos technology and financial stability day after day in meeting after meeting, the prosecutors wrote in their memo to the judge. Balwani maintained this façade of accomplishments, after making the calculated decision that honesty would destroy Theranos.

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