Stifels Barry Bannister is taking the news in stride. The chief equity strategist predicted in January that stocks, led by cyclical growth sectors like tech, would rally in the first half of 2023 due in large part to a sharp drop in inflation. He also correctly claimed that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)the official arbiter of business cycleswould not declare a recession in the first half of the year. 

Now, hes doubling down on that call, at least in the near term.

Since Oct-2022, economic resilience and policy prudence indicated to us no immediate textbook recessionrecessions and bear markets are surprises and not so widely (perhaps universally?) anticipated, Bannister wrote in a Tuesday research note, arguing a recession wont hit this summer like many on Wall Street expect.

Bannister is referring to the common textbook recession definition, which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. But he also noted that he doesnt foresee NBER declaring a recession based on their wider criteria that looks for a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.

Amid economic resilience and A.I. enthusiasm, Bannister sees this years stock market rally continuing until the fourth quarter as well, albeit at a much more subdued pace.

We see the S&P 500 beginning to level out around 4,400 in 3Q23 wrapping the bull market from Oct-2022 lows, he wrote Monday. The price target implies a mild roughly 3% gain for the S&P 500 over the coming months.

After tech stocks incredible performance to start the year, Bannister recommended investors look to Cyclical Value stockswhich tend to rise and fall based on the economys health and trade at lower valuationsin sectors like basic materials, industrials, or financials for bargains this summer.

Most gains since Oct-2022 were Cyclical Growth (Tech, et al.), but now we see Cyclical Value in a catch-up P/E-led rally to 3Q23, he wrote, arguing that Cyclical Value stocks will see their valuations, in terms of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, rise over the coming months after their recent underperformance.

But Bannister has warned since January that 2023 could still be a year of two halves. And on Tuesday, he said that between the fourth quarter of this year and the second quarter of 2024, investors should be watchful for a textbook recession induced by the Federal Reserve.

Fed officials could end up raising rates to a point where the economy is forced into a recession, according to Bannister, who believes this policy risk will be preceded by a good news is bad news dynamic from marketswhere stocks begin to fall on positive economic news because investors fear it will force the Fed to raise rates even higher to quash inflation.

On top of that, Bannister cautioned that he still believes were in the midst of a decade-long secular bear marketa process of where P/E ratios fall despite earnings rising which leaves the S&P 500 stuck in a sideways trading range.

We caution that a Secular Bear Market began in Jan-2022 (at ~4,800 for S&P 500), so stay nimble to ~2030, he told clients.

The oil is made from the blubber of seals and sold as a nutritional supplement with a promise of containing healthy fats. The company, FeelGood Natural Health Stores of Whitby, Ontario, sold and transported capsules made from harp seals, the U.S. Department of Justice said Monday.

The companys actions are illegal under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, which makes it unlawful to transport or sell any marine mammal or byproducts for most commercial purposes. The act protects the harp seal throughout its range, including the North Atlantic and Artic oceans and the waters off New England.

FeelGood shipped more than 900 bottles of the capsules worth more than $10,000 to the U.S. from 2019 to 2021, the Justice Department said.

The illegal importation of marine mammal products not only violates the Marine Mammal Protection Act but also jeopardizes the safety of protected species such as harp seals, said U.S. Attorney Dawn N. Ison for the Eastern District of Michigan, which prosecuted the case.

Harp seals are listed as a special species of least concern by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, though their population declined to low levels in the 1960s due to hunting. They now have a global population of about 7 million, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They have been hunted off of Canada for thousands of years.

FeelGood entered its plea on Monday and will be sentenced on Sept. 28. Representatives for the company did not respond to requests for comment on Tuesday. The company pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Lacey Act, which combats wildlife trafficking, in violation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act.

A plea agreement states that the company will pay a fine of $20,000 and face three years of probation, during which it must create and implement a compliance plan, train employees and cooperate with the U.S. government, the Justice Department said. The maximum sentence for the charge of violating the Lacey Act, is a $500,000 fine and five years probation, the department said.

The Justice Department said FeelGood sold the seal oil capsules via its own website and a third-party platform. The companys website describes it as a worldwide shipper of supplements and natural remedies. Seal oil products were still on the companys website on Tuesday and were marked with a notice that they cannot be shipped to the U.S.

When it was shipping the seal oil to the U.S., the company sent it direct from Canada or through fulfillment centers run by a third party in the U.S., the Justice Department said. In some instances, it sent the items to a covert U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service special agent, the Justice Department said.

Our wildlife laws were passed to ensure the continued existence and enjoyment of these natural resources for future generations, said Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim of the Justice Departments Environment and Natural Resources Division.

He and his Web3 gaming company announced the funding on Tuesdaya seed round led by Haun Ventures, the firm started by former federal prosecutor Katie Haun. Other participants include Robot Ventures, Anagram, Dispersion Capital, and Alchemy. Sunarto declined to provide the companys valuation.

Haun Ventures recently has focused on crypto infrastructure, including Sovereign Labs, and Breck Stodghill, an investment associate at the firm, clarified to Fortune that its backing of Argus Labsits first Web3 gaming startup in its portfolioisnt a pivot.

I dont necessarily see it as a departure from infrastructure investing, Stodghill added. I think its actually a really nice complement to building both the infrastructure and the applications at the same time.

The investment in Argus is Hauns latest, as the recently launched firm continues to spread $1.5 billion among crypto companies despite the regulatory uncertainty regarding the industry in the U.S. and the SECs recent targeting of the largest exchanges.

We are not a gaming fund, Stodghill told Fortune. But we recognize that gaming is an interesting market and we want to back who we perceive are the best founders in this new market.

Sunarto, the founder of Argus Labs, said he first started playing around with crypto in middle school. I thought it was funny, he said of his initial impressions of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and the wider market.

However, as he grew older, Web3 became less of a joke and more of a passion. In high school, he started writing his own smart contracts, or programs designed to run on a blockchain, and in college, he and a few friends launched Dark Forest, an online strategy game that codifies players decisions onto the blockchain.

As the game grew in popularity, Sunartos plans for the future became more ambitious. We realized that we want to build more games like Dark Forest, but the infrastructure wasnt really there, he told Fortune.

So, he founded Argus Labs. His companys first goal is to focus on infrastructure through a product he calls the World Engine, or a system for developers to more easily create blockchain games to not overwhelm the limited computational resources of most blockchains, which are slow, decentralized computers.

With the new capital, he and his team plan to roll out World Engine and then focus on a game theyre developing, which they plan to release later this year. (Sunarto didnt provide specifics about the game.)

We can experiment and build new things that were previously impossible on the infrastructure side, he told Fortune. And then that will give people on the content side of things and application side of things new design space for building games that were previously considered impossible.