Prior to the war, Russia and Ukraine were global breadbaskets as top producers and exporters of wheat, sunflower seeds, and barley. The fighting ended up aggravating hunger and food crises in low-income countries that are dependent on imports. But both Russia and Ukraine are also key cogs in the global fertilizer industry, and the war has triggered a shortage of the critical commodity that few people consider but is nevertheless essential to global food security.

Much like how Russian President Vladimir Putin leveraged the worlds reliance on his countrys fossil fuels to weaponize energy supplies during the war, he is doing something very similar with fertilizer and food, Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Norwegian chemical company Yara International, among the worlds largest fertilizer producers and suppliers, told the Financial Times in an interview published Thursday. 

Putins energy gambit, which sent fossil fuel prices soaring and left Europe on the brink of recession last year, has so far not gone as expected, with a warm winter working against him and Europe able to buy natural gas from elsewhere. But Holsether warned the worlds reliance on Russia for fertilizer threatens more disruption of food supply, adding to existing challenges of logistics bottlenecks and climate change.

If you look at the role that we have allowed Russia to have in global food supply, we depend on them. How did that happen? What kind of weapon is that? And Putin is weaponizing food, Holsether said.

It is sort of a perfect storm for the whole food system right now: very challenging in Europe, of course, with higher prices; even worse in other parts of the world where a human being dies every four seconds as a result of hunger, he added.

Global fertilizer crisis

When natural gas prices surged last year after Russia invaded Ukraine, so did prices for fertilizer, which manufacturers such as Yara produce with ammonia and nitrogen obtained as a byproduct from natural gas. Fertilizer prices had already begun increasing in 2021 due to high energy costs and supply chain issues.

Declining natural gas prices and weak demand among farmers have eased pressures somewhat over the past few months. Earlier this month, fertilizer prices fell to their lowest level in nearly two years in tandem with natural gas prices. But despite falling prices, Holsether insists that the global fertilizer market is precarious, and countries should shift from relying on Russian natural gas, to safeguard their agricultural industries.

Putin has weaponized energy and theyre weaponizing food as well, Holsether told the BBC at last weeks World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Its the saying, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Fertilizer prices remain high by historical standards, and the World Bank warned earlier this month that global supply is still tight due to the war, production cuts in Europe, and stricter export controls in China. 

Averting a food crisis

If fertilizer is in short supply or prices remain unaffordable to many countries, farmers may be unable to keep their soil fertile enough for crops. 

Concerns over fertilizer have taken center stage in recent weeks in Africa, which is heavily reliant on Russian food imports, and where agricultural production has taken a blow in recent years due to drought in many countries. The eastern Horn of Africaincluding Somalia, Sudan, and Kenyahas been particularly hard-hit, as it is likely on the verge of a sixth straight failed rainy season, the worst drought conditions in 70 years of recorded data.

Securing additional sources of fertilizer was the cornerstone of a $2.5 billion U.S. food assistance package to Africa signed last month, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted the importance of stabilizing fertilizer supply in Africa multiple times during a visit to Zambia this week.

Now were in 2023, its tragic and shouldnt be like that, Holsether told the FT about the state of global hunger. That should be a very strong reminder of the need to have a more robust food systemfrom a climate perspective, from a logistics perspective, but also from a political perspective.

Holsether said that all countries must become more self-sufficient with their food production. For fertilizer, he touted the promise of green fertilizers that use hydrogen and renewable energy to produce ammonia rather than natural gas, saying that clean and local solutions are critical to decoupling the global food system from Russias war.

Holsether also warned that European nations should not rely on their wealth to avert a food or fertilizer crisis. Like with natural gas, Europe has in recent months turned to the U.S. for nitrogen to replace Russian imports, but Holsether warned that Europe buying its way out of a food crisis is no remedy for global food insecurity.

Yes. Not near termthere will be a shortage and there will be a global auction for foodbut Europe is a wealthy part of the world, Holsether said when asked if Europe should be concerned for its food security. 

But we need to think it through, he added, saying that Europe buying food and fertilizer products from other countries will only create more global supply shortages and take away from other countries in dire need. 

In terms of food and food security, when you have that, you see wars or mass migrations, extremism, all these things, he said.

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Simply put, using lawful means we hacked the hackers, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said at a news conference.

Officials said the targeted syndicate, known as Hive, operates one of the worlds top five ransomware networks. The FBI quietly gained access to its control panel in July and was able to obtain software keys to decrypt the network of some 1,300 victims globally, said FBI Director Christopher Wray. Officials credited German police and other international partners.

It was not immediately clear how the takedown will affect Hives long-term operations, however. Officials did not announce any arrests but said they were building a map of Hives administrators, who manage the software, and affiliates, who infect targets and negotiate with victims, to pursue prosecutions.

I think anyone involved with Hive should be concerned because this investigation is ongoing, Wray said.

On Wednesday night, FBI agents seized computer infrastructure in Los Angeles that was used to support the network. Hives dark web site was also seized.

Cybercrime is a constantly evolving threat, but as I have said before, the Justice Department will spare no resource to bring to justice anyone anywhere that targets the United States with a ransomware attack, Wray said.

Garland said that thanks to the infiltration, led by the FBIs Tampa office, agents were able in one instance to disrupt a Hive attack against a Texas school district, stopping it from making a $5 million payment.

The operation is a big win for the Justice Department. The ransomware scourge is the worlds biggest cybercrime headache with everything from Britains postal service and Irelands national health service to Costa Ricas government crippled by Russian-speaking syndicates that enjoy Kremlin protection. The criminals lock up, or encrypt, victims computer networks, steal sensitive data and demand large sums.

As an example of Hives threat, Garland said it had prevented a hospital in the Midwest in 2021 from accepting new patients at the height of the COVID-19 epidemic.

A U.S. government advisory last year said Hive ransomware actors victimized over 1,300 companies worldwide from June 2021 through November 2022, receiving approximately $100 million in ransom payments. It said criminals using Hive ransomware targeted a wide range of businesses and critical infrastructure, including government, manufacturing and especially health care and public health facilities.

The threat captured the attention of the highest levels of the Biden administration two years ago after a series of high-profile attacks that threatened critical infrastructure and global industry. In May 2021, for instance, hackers targeted the nations largest fuel pipeline, causing the operators to briefly shut it down and make a multimillion-dollar ransom payment that the U.S. government largely recovered.

Federal officials have used a variety of tools to try to combat the problem, but conventional law enforcement measures such as arrests and prosecutions have done little to frustrate the criminals.

The FBI has obtained access to decryption keys before. It did so in the case of a major 2021 ransomware attack on Kaseya, a company whose software runs hundreds of websites. It took some heat, however, for waiting several weeks to help victims unlock afflicted networks.

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