For months, experts have debated whether a soft-landing, in which the Federal Reserve slows the economy to reduce inflation without causing a recession, is possible.

The idea is to cause some pain, but avoid a more significant downturn caused by a recession, such as tanking stocks and a stagnant economy. 

But one strategist thinks that a recession isnt such a bad outcome. In fact, stock markets could be in trouble without a recession this year. 

I actually think the biggest risk to markets is that we dont get a recession in 2023, JPMorgan strategist Mike Bell told Bloomberg TV Tuesday. 

Without a recession, he said, worker wages will continue to increase and force the Fed to raise interest rates in the latter half of the year. That, in turn, would mean the Fed cant be as dovish, or support lower interest rates, as the markets anticipate it will in 2024.

If the Fed fails to rein in interest rates like investors hope, it could have a more far-reaching impact, Bell said.

Unfortunately, youre back into a world where both bonds and stocks would go down together, he said. 

If all goes as Bell hopes, including a recession, he expects the Fed to cut rates to 2.5% by the end of 2024 compared to the current rate of 4.25% to 4.5%. 

Since the start of 2022, the central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in an effort to cool rising prices. It has started working, with Decembers inflation rate down to 6.5% year-over-year from Junes 40-year high of 9.1%.

Some experts say the economy has fared much better than expected, which could steer it away from the recession track.

Even though falling inflation is raising optimism that interest rate hikes are working, the economy is not out of the woods yet, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. He said that investors may be getting ahead of themselves by treating inflation as old news, and sending stocks up sharply in January, calling it a self-denying prophecy.

The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday. 

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Cancer deaths have been on the decline for more than three decadesand stayed on the decline, even with the pandemic raging, according to a new report from the American Cancer Society.

The U.S. cancer death rate declined 1.5% from 2019 to 2020part of a 33% overall decline since 1991 that averted nearly 4 million deaths, according to an article published earlier this month in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, citing federal health statistics.

The positive trend occurred due to advances in treatment. But it could eventually be blunted by a rising incidence of breast, prostate, and uterine cancer cases, the authors warn.

Aiding the decline in deaths: a 65% drop in cervical cancer diagnoses from 2012 through 2019 among women in their early 20smany of whom were among the first to receive the human papillomavirus vaccine, known to reduce rates of the cancer. The substantial drop foreshadows steep reductions in the incidence of HPV-related cancers, most of which occur in women, the authors wrote.

Diagnosis rates of some types of cancer are trending upward, however. Female breast cancer rates have been on a slow ascent of about .5% year since the mid-2000s, due in part to declines in the fertility rate and increases in obesity, the authors wrote. Such factors may also contribute to the increased incidence of uterine cancer, which has been rising about 1% to 2% a year since the mid-2000s. 

Rates of prostate cancer diagnoses increased 3% annually from 2014 through 2019, the authors wrote.

The report noted numerous racial disparities, including a prostate cancer mortality rate two to four times higher for Black men than others, and Black women having the highest mortality rate for uterine cancer.

The lifetime probability of being diagnosed with an invasive cancer sits around 40% and is about 1.8 percentage points higher for men than for women, according to the report.

In 2023, nearly 2 million new cancer diagnoses are expected, with more than 600,000 deaths, they added.

Cancer is the second most common cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and ahead of COVID. In 2020, slightly more than 600,000 Americans died of cancer, while around 350,000 died of COVID, according to federal health data.

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After a brutal year in 2022, the S&P 500 rose over 6% in Januaryto the surprise of many Wall Street analysts. But Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel warned on Monday that the good times may not last.

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times to fight the rise of inflation last year, Siegel said that investors are betting that their tactics have worked, inflation has peaked, and rate hikes will slow or even stop in the coming months, leading the stock market to rise.

Economists and investors are optimistic, and expect the Fed to raise rates by just 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday after the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)where a group of officials meets eight times a year to decide interest rate policyconcludes. But Siegel warned that if chairman Powell choses to raise interest rates by 50 basis points instead, as he did in December, it could be a disaster for investors. 

There will be tremendous selling pressure for the risk markets, and we could easily see a 1,000-point drop in the Dow immediately, he wrote in weekly market commentary, adding that even a 25 basis point rate hike doesnt mean stocks are all clear.

Siegel said he will be carefully watching Chair Powells post-FOMC press conference tomorrow, where Powell delivered hawkish remarks that sent markets lower in the past. And he added that even with a 25 basis point hike, Powells tone will be crucial. 

Does Powell concede there has been much progress on the battle over inflation or will he maintain a stubborn view that tightening must continue for much longer. The markets clearly want this to be the end or very near the end of the tightening cycle.but is Powell paying attention?

Siegel has argued for months now that Fed officials are being overly aggressive in their inflation-fight because they are relying on old data. In December, he said that inflation is basically over and Fed officials are making a terrible mistake by continuing to raise interest rates. 

The professor points to data that shows rent and home prices are falling, despite the supposed housing market inflation seen in the Feds inflation gauges. He also said on Wednesday that overall consumer demand is now quite weak, and economic growth is fading. 

But Siegel wasnt all doom and gloom. He struck a more positive tone when discussing the latest earnings season this week.

As fourth quarter earnings continue to come in, they are largely showing ok results, with a nod towards guiding lower for 2023, he wrote. I still hold out hope that productivity growth can rebound and support corporate profits.

Siegel said 2023 earnings estimates from Wall Street are conservative and that firms will get rid of unproductive workers to help maintain profitability. That means, as long as the Fed doesnt push the economy into a recession with aggressive rate hikes, stocks could rise.   

We can have a positive backdrop for the markets, he wrote. But we are reliant on the Fed pivot. All eyes are on you, Powell.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, told Fortune that he believes the good news is that the Fed will eventually be forced to address both sides of its dual mandateinflation and employmentby pausing rate hikes as inflation convincingly decelerates. 

The Fed cannot ignore the fact that the economy is slowing and recession risks are rising, he said.

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Tech companies are always in the news, usually touting the next big thing. However, the tech news cycle recently hasnt been dominated by the latest gadget or innovation. Instead, layoffs are in the headlines.

In the last year, more than 70,000 people globally have been laid off by Big Tech companiesand that doesnt count the downstream effect of contractors (and other organizations) losing business as budgets tighten.

What exactly led to this massive shakeout? And what does it mean for the industry, and you?

Whats the damage?

Since the end of the pandemic hiring spree, large numbers of employees have been fired from major tech companies, including Alphabet (12,000 employees), Amazon (18,000), Meta (11,000), Twitter (4,000), Microsoft (10,000), and Salesforce (8,000).

Other household names share the spotlight, including Tesla, Netflix, Robinhood, Snap, Coinbase and Spotifybut their layoffs are significantly less than those mentioned above.

Importantly, these figures dont include the downstream layoffs, such as advertising agencies laying off staff as ad spend reduces, or manufacturers downsizing as tech product orders shrinkor even potential layoffs yet to come.

And lets not forget the folks leaving voluntarily because they dont want to come into the office, hate their managers, or arent keen on Elon Musks hardcore work philosophy.

The effects of all of the above will be felt in the consulting, marketing, advertising, and manufacturing spaces as companies reduce spending and redirect it towards innovating in A.I.

So whats driving the layoffs?

The canary in the coal mine was reduced advertising spend and revenue. Many tech companies are funded through advertising. So, for as long as that income stream was healthy (which was especially the case in the years leading up to COVID), so was expenditure on staffing. As advertising revenue decreased last yearin part due to fears over a global recession triggered by the pandemicit was inevitable layoffs would follow.

Apple is one exception. It strongly resisted increasing its head count in recent years and as a result doesnt have to shrink staff numbers (although it hasnt been immune to staff losses due to work-from-home policy changes).

What does it mean for consumers?

Although the headlines can be startling, the layoffs wont actually mean a whole lot for consumers. Overall, work on tech products and services is still expanding.

Even Twitter, which many predicted would be dead by now, is looking to diversify its streams of revenue.

That said, some pet projects such as Mark Zuckerbergs Metaverse likely wont be further developed the way their leaders had initially hoped. The evidence for this is in the layoffs, which are concentrated (at least at Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta) in these big innovation gambles taken by senior leaders.

Over the past few years, low interest rates coupled with high COVID-related consumption gave leaders the confidence to invest in innovative products. Other than in A.I., that investment is now slowing, or is dead.

And what about the people who lost their jobs?

Layoffs can be devastating for the individuals affected. But who is affected in this case?

For the most part, the people losing their jobs are educated and highly employable professionals. They are being given severance packages and support which often exceed the minimum legal requirements. Amazon, for example, specifically indicated its losses would be in tech staff and those who support themnot in warehouses.

Having a Big Tech employer on their résumé will be a real advantage as these individuals move into a more competitive employment market, even if it doesnt look like it will be quite as heated as many had feared.

What does this mean for the industry?

With experienced tech professionals looking for work once again, salaries are likely to deflate and higher levels of experience and education will be required to secure employment. These corrections in the industry are potentially a sign its falling in line with other, more established parts of the market.

The recent layoffs are eye-catching, but they wont affect the overall economy much. In fact, even if Big Tech laid off 100,000 workers, it would still be a fraction of the tech work force.

The numbers reported may seem large, but theyre often not reported as a proportion of overall wage spend, or indeed overall staffing. For some tech companies they are just a fraction of the massive amount of new hires initially acquired during the pandemic.

Big Tech is still a big employer, and its big products will continue to impact many aspects of our lives.

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Exxon Mobil posted record annual profits in 2022 as consumers globally struggled with high prices for gasoline, home heating and consumer goods.

The energy giant brought in $55.7 billion in annual profits, exceeding its previous record of $45.22 billion in 2008, when a barrel of oil soared close to $150.

Exxons bounty came as Americans shelled out $4 per gallon for gasoline throughout most of the spring and summer with millions hitting the road. At one point gasoline topped $5 a gallon. Supplies grew tight and prices rose globally after Russia invaded Ukraine and reduced energy supplies to Europe.

The year marked a dramatic turnaround from 2020 when travel ground to a halt during the coronavirus pandemic and demand for fuel evaporated. That year, the price for future oil contracts plummeted below zero at one point, dozens of oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy protection and thousands of industry workers lost their jobs. Exxon, for the first time in decades, lost money in 2020.

Two years later, Exxon booked $12.75 billion in profits and $95.43 billion in revenue in just its final quarter.

While our results clearly benefited from a favorable market, the counter-cyclical investments we made before and during the pandemic provided the energy and products people needed as economies began recovering and supplies became tight, said CEO Darren Woods. We leaned in when others leaned out.

Exxon achieved its best-ever annual refining output in North America and the highest globally since 2012, the company said. It completed the expansion of its Beaumont Refinery in Texas and expects to be able to process 250,000 barrels per day of crude oil there in first quarter of this year.

Much of the nations refining capacity taken offline during the pandemic has yet to return, Woods said during a conference call with investors, which drove refining margins higher.

Weve continued to strengthen our industry-leading portfolio and increased production from high-return, advantaged assets in Guyana and the Permian, at a time when the world needed it most, Woods said.

Exxon earned $3.09 per share in the quarter. That was lower than the expectations of analysts polled by Factset, who were anticipating $3.29 per share.

The price of oil ranged between $70 to $90 for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude during the quarter. Domestic natural gas prices, which affect the cost of home energy and electricity, ranged from $6 to $7 per million British thermal units during the quarter, according to FactSet, which was a higher price than most Americans have paid in recent years.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russias decreased its supply of natural gas to Europe, which resulted in higher prices of natural gas and its liquid counterpart, LNG, on the global market.

President Joe Biden has accused oil companies of profiting from the war Russia is waging on Ukraine, and has previously raised the possibility of a war profit tax on oil companies. Exxon said it incurred $1.3 billion during the quarter associated with European taxes on the energy sector and asset impairments.

A windfall tax on oil and gas profits is needed more than ever, to free up money thats desperately needed to help those struggling with the cost of energy, and as economies around the world face recession, said Jonathan Noronha-Gant, senior campaigner with Global Witness, a nonprofit organization that advocates for environmental sustainability and corporate responsibility.

The European Union imposed a windfall tax on energy companies last fall, and Exxon filed a lawsuit challenging the tax in December.

We looked at what happened in the EU and said it both is not legal and its the opposite of what is needed, Woods said Tuesday. So whats needed right now is more supply. And instead, whats been put in place is a penalty on the broad energy sector.

Exxon also announced progress on sustainability aims, saying it achieved its goal of eliminating routine flaring in the Permian Basin during the fourth quarter, which is part of its effort to reduce emissions. Flaring is a practice where oil and gas companies burn off excess natural gas instead of capturing it.

Exxons Low Carbon Solutions business recently signed a contract to capture and permanently store up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, Woods said. The recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes carbon capture and storage, reinforces those plans and Exxon is planning to invest $17 billion in lower-emissions opportunities from 2022 through 2027, up from $15 billion in its prior plan, he said.

Exxon closed 2022 on a strong note, but softer oil and natural gas prices in the fourth quarter compared to earlier in the year had an impact, said Peter McNally, global sector lead at Third Bridge. The big picture here for Exxon Mobil is that the company has financial flexibility and plenty of investment options, McNally added.

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The Biden administration plans to end the national COVID public health emergency on May 11, it said Monday, bringing to an end access to free COVID tests, treatments, and vaccines for many.

The announcement stunned many. The World Health Organization had announced earlier in the day that it would extend the global public health emergency for another three months, through April 30. And the Biden administration had just re-extended the national pandemic emergency status on Jan. 11, through April. 

Still, the announcement is in keeping with the administrations promise to give at least 60 days notice to states before ending the emergency, according to a Jan. 30 memo released by the Executive Office of the President. Lead time is important due to myriad implications of repealing the emergency status, including the anticipated loss of Medicaid coverage for millions of Americans.

Abruptly ending the emergency would create wide-ranging chaos and uncertainty throughout the healthcare systemfor states, for hospitals and doctors offices, and, most importantly, for tens of millions of Americans, the office wrote in the memo.

What are the implications for Americans?  Heres what we know.

All Americans

Access to free vaccines and boosters for all Americans will continue until federal supplies run out, Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) Vice President Cynthia Cox, said Tuesday via Twitter.

During the pandemic, all states and Washington, D.C., allowed providers licensed in other states to practice in their state via telehealth. In some states, this ability will end after May 11, according to KFF. In other states, this ability has already ended or been temporarily or permanently extended.

Medicare patients

Those on Medicare have received free at-home testing kits and testing-related services, as well as treatments like the antiviral Paxlovid. Access to free at-home testing kits and testing services will end on May 11. But access to some free oral antivirals will continue, according to KFF.

Changes to telehealth made during the pandemic that allowed Medicare patients who live in both rural and metropolitan areas to receive services at home and/or on a  smartphone will continue through Dec. 31, 2024, thanks to new legislation.

Medicaid patients

Those on Medicaid have received free COVID testing, treatments, and vaccines throughout the pandemic. Access to free testing and treatments will end on July 1 of next year, according to KFF. Free access to vaccines will continue indefinitely.

Millions of Medicaid patients risk losing coverage as soon as April, if they would have otherwise been found ineligible during the pandemic and were kept on solely because of it. KFF estimates that as many as 14 million Americans will lose Medicaid coverage between the spring of this year and spring of next.

Private insurance

Private insurance providers will no longer be required to provide free COVID tests, related services, and vaccines after May 11. Theyll be able to charge deductibles and copays for COVID tests and related doctor appointments, limit the number of tests they provide you with, and restrict covered COVID care to in-network providers, Cox said Tuesday via Twitter.

Uninsured 

Uninsured patients will no longer receive guaranteed free access to COVID tests, vaccinations, and treatments after May 11.

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PayPal is laying off around 2,000 employees, the company announced Tuesday

The cuts account for around 7% of the companys workforce, and will take place over the next few weeks, CEO Dan Schulman said in a statement.

Schulman emphasized that the company was operating in a challenging macro-economic environment, and said that while the company had made progress getting its cost structure under control, it had more work to do.

The CEO emphasized that departing workers would be given severance and support after they departed the company.

We will treat our departing colleagues with the utmost respect and empathy, provide them with generous packages, engage in consultation where required, and support them with their transitions, he wrote. I want to express my personal appreciation for the meaningful contributions they have made to PayPal.

PayPal is just the latest tech company to announce major layoffs, following a slew of others including Meta, Alphabet, IBM, Microsoft, Twitter, Spotify, Stripe, Amazon and Salesforce. Many companies went on hiring sprees during the height of the COVID pandemic. But when advertising revenue fell this year, spurred by fears of a global slowdown caused by inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, these tech companies found themselves in a very different business landscape.

Workers have often been left reeling from the impersonal nature of the cuts, waking up to zero email access, or denied entry into their office building. For employees who are working in the U.S. on a visa, the layoffs have meant a desperate scramble to find a new job within a short period of time before they are forced to leave the country.

In one instance, a Google employee on maternity leave found out she had been cut while she was feeding her daughter. Tech employees have left messages on LinkedIn and other social media platforms venting their frustrations about being axed.

Im devastated. Im sad, angry, one former Google employee wrote.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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