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Women who have never smoked are being diagnosed with lung cancer and it's confounding both doctors and patients

When many people think of an average lung cancer patient, they often imagine an older man smoking. But the face of lung cancer has changed. Over the past 15 years, more women, never smokers and younger people are being diagnosed with lung cancer.

In fact, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women, and more women die from lung cancer than breast, ovarian and colorectal cancer each year. The American Lung Association reports that while lung cancer rates have risen by 79% for women over the last 44 years, they decreased by 43% for men. And for the first time in history, there are more young women than men diagnosed with lung cancer.

As a thoracic oncologist at Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center, part of the University of Miami Health System, I have seen many younger women and never smokers walk into my clinic with a new diagnosis of lung cancer. Particularly for never smokers, lung cancer is unexpected for both patients and their doctors, which can often lead to delays in diagnosis. Researchers have described this trend of increasing lung cancer rates among women in different parts of the world and are starting to understand why cases are on the rise.

Lung cancer in women

The first explanation of why rates of lung cancer in women have increased is that many started smoking later than men, pushing back their peak in smoking-related lung cancer diagnoses.

Women also started smoking in the years when filtered cigarettes were most commonly used. This led to an increased risk of a type of cancer called adenocarcinoma due to the way cigarette filters distribute tobacco smoke to the outer parts of the lungs. Some studies suggest that women are more susceptible to the carcinogenic effects of exposure to tobacco and cigarette smoke, including second-hand smoke, and may develop lung cancer after fewer years of smoking compared to men.

However, it is important to note that most people diagnosed today with lung cancer are not active smokers. About 20% of women with lung cancer have never smoked higher than for men with lung cancer whove never smoked.

Lung cancer risk factors

Besides smoking and secondhand smoke, there are several other lung cancer risk factors. These include a family history of cancer and exposure to asbestos, radon and air pollution.

Exposure to carcinogens in the workplace in the form of inhaled chemicals such as arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, silica and nickel is still a concern in some parts of the world. The potential lung cancer risk of e-cigarette and marijuana smoke is still under study but of potential concern.

Recently, researchers have also found that genetics can play a role in lung cancer risk in some patients with a strong history of lung cancer. Studies of these families have helped identify potential susceptibility genes for lung cancer and environmental risk factors.

Like BRCA1 and BRCA2 in breast cancer, alterations in genes that promote or protect against tumor development can contribute to lung cancer development. Researchers have yet to identify specific mutations that may predispose individuals to lung cancer. However, studying familial genetic predispositions can help elucidate how lung cancer develops and lead to new biomarkers for early cancer detection in high-risk groups.

Lung cancer screening

In 2021, the United States Preventive Services Task Force updated its lung cancer screening guidelines to include younger patients with less smoking history. Now, lung cancer screening is recommended for adults ages 50 to 80 who have smoked at least one pack per day for 20 years, current smokers and former smokers who quit smoking within the last 15 years. Women at risk for lung cancer can talk to their doctors about ordering a low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening.

Nationwide, more than 70% of eligible women undergo breast cancer screening but less than 6% of all eligible smokers pursue lung cancer screening. Researchers estimate that these new screening guidelines will increase the number of women eligible for lung cancer screening by 40% by including those at a younger age who have less smoking exposure.

Lung cancer diagnosis

In recent years, increasing understanding of the genetic changes that can lead to cancer and how to harness the immune system to treat cancer has led to new targeted therapies and immunotherapies that have improved the prognosis of patients with lung cancer. Women tend to have a better lung cancer prognosis than men, especially if they never smoked and have tumors with molecular changes that can be treated with targeted therapies.

However, lung cancer symptoms may go unrecognized in women. Symptoms of lung cancer can include coughing, shortness of breath, overwhelming fatigue and pain in the back, chest or shoulder, which could be confused for other ailments. Because women tend to be slightly younger when diagnosed than men, patients may be able to tolerate symptoms longer and delay seeking medical attention. Physicians also might not attribute these symptoms to lung cancer due to a patients younger age.

Recognizing the early symptoms of lung cancer, expanding lung cancer screening eligibility and testing for genetic biomarkers to select the best therapy are some of the steps that could help address the global epidemic of lung cancer in women.

Estelamari Rodriguez is associate director of community outreach in thoracic oncology, University of Miami

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Mark Zuckerberg just won a big victory in a fight over virtual reality and it's FTC Chair Lina Khan's first major loss

Meta Platforms Inc. won court approval to buy virtual reality startup Within Unlimited, defeating an effort to block the deal by the US Federal Trade Commission, according to people familiar with the ruling.

In a sealed decision early Wednesday morning, US District Judge Edward Davila in San Jose, California, denied the FTCs request for a preliminary injunction to block the proposed transaction while the agency pursues a separate case in its in-house court. He separately issued a temporary restraining order pausing Meta from closing the transaction for a week while the FTC decides whether to appeal his ruling.

The people asked for anonymity to describe Davilas decisions.

Facebook declined to comment. The FTC declined to comment, citing the sealed nature of Davilas decisions.

Meta was down nearly 1% to $147.56 at 9:50 a.m. in New York.

An in-house trial before the FTCs administrative judge is scheduled to begin on Feb. 13. The FTC also will need to decide whether to move forward with that case.

The decision represents the first major loss for FTC Chair Lina Khan, who was appointed by President Joe Biden to reinvigorate antitrust enforcement as a key tenet of his administrations economic policy. Khan has taken a more aggressive approach to mergers than her predecessors and stepped up the agencys focus on technology giants in particular because of their potential to quickly dominate budding markets.

The FTC sued Meta in July, arguing that its purchase of Within the maker of Supernatural, a popular VR fitness app would aid the social networking giant in dominating the emerging virtual reality industry. Top Meta executives, including Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg and VR head Andrew Bosworth, testified during an eight-day hearing in December.

The FTC has also challenged Microsoft Corp.s proposed $69 billion merger with gaming publisher Activision Blizzard Inc. on concerns the deal could harm competition in the nascent cloud gaming market. That case is slated for trial in August.

At the December hearing, the FTC argued that Metas acquisition of Within would help the Facebook parent develop a monopoly in the nascent virtual reality space. The FTC asserted that the deal could hurt potential competition that might emerge in the future.

Davilas apparent rejection of that argument could bode poorly for the FTC in its effort to block Microsoft from buying Activision, where similar contentions about the future of gaming in the cloud are central to the complaint.

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Stimulus money is partly behind soaring U.S. inflation, Fed study finds

The early days of the pandemic were among the darkest economic moments in recent history for low-income Americans struggling with unemployment and lost incomes. The Trump administration quickly provided relief by signing a $2 trillion package in March 2020 that sent $1,200 checks to every American who earned less than $75,000 along with enhanced unemployment, and forgivable business loans. President Joe Biden followed with additional stimulus money.

In total, American households received more than 472 million pandemic relief payments worth $803 billion. In total, nearly $5 trillion went to households, businesses, local governments, and other institutions.

And the programs worked, at least as far as their intended purpose. Material hardship in U.S. households fell sharply as a result of the payments, a 2021 Census Bureau survey found, including for problems like malnutrition, mental health, and financial instability.

For months, partisan debates have raged over whether the early pandemic stimulus fueled the past years high inflation, or if high prices were caused by other factors like Chinas COVID lockdowns tangling supply chains.

The answer, according to a new study by the St. Louis Fed, is that government stimulus was indeed responsible for some U.S. inflation. The authors found that 2.6 percentage points of the 7.9% 12-month inflation rate in February 2022 was due to stimulus.

The authors found that stimulus payments led to substantially more demand for goods in the run up to 2022, but industrial production at the time was unable to keep up. The result was a higher amount of excess inflation, they said.

By narrowing the study to February 2022, the authors excluded any analysis of more recent inflation rates. It also happened to largely miss the impact of Russias invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, which caused energy and food prices to soar.

An economic lifeline

While white collar American workers retreated to their laptops and home offices to work remotely in 2020, many other Americans werent as lucky. Unemployment surged in the first half of 2020 and permanent business closures piled up. The number of people living below the poverty line ticked upwards, and more than half of Americans expected to run out of savings before the year closed out.

The wave of stimulus payments were an essential lifeline for low- and moderate-income Americans whose livelihoods were hit hardest by the pandemic, and may have helped lift nearly 12 million people out of poverty in 2020 alone, according to the Census Bureau. Meanwhile, federal stimulus to businesses amounted to $1.7 trillion throughout the pandemic

But while more than half of Americans reported using their stimulus money to pay for basic necessities including food and rent, recipients with higher incomes tended to save it. Consumer spending soared in 2021 due to greater disposable income. But with fears of COVID transmission and travel restrictions worldwide still in place, that spending was overwhelmingly on goods rather than services, contributing to the market imbalances that lifted the inflation rate in February 2022.

While stimulus checks helped keep consumption at relatively strong levels even during lockdowns, industrial and manufacturing activity did not accelerate to keep pace, the Fed studys authors wrote.

By stimulating demand without boosting supply, our results suggest that fiscal support contributed to increased excess demand pressures in goods markets, they added.

The findings of the research align with another study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in December that also identified short-term inflationary effects linked to fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021. The latter study found that stimulus issued directly to consumers was more inflationary than stimulus for businesses.

The St. Louis Fed survey also suggested that higher-than-expected consumer spending and supply chain issues may have amplified each other to feed rising inflation.

This policy was successful at boosting consumption, which, together with a relatively inelastic supply, may have led to supply chain bottlenecks and price tensions, the authors wrote.

However, the Feds St. Louis and San Francisco studies both noted that the social benefits of stimulus payments could potentially outweigh the negatives of inflation.

One should also recognize the positive role played by generous government support throughout this unprecedented crisis. The large spending supported a strong economic rebound, with both GDP and employment recovering at a remarkable pace, likely preventing worse outcomes despite the price pressures that may have resulted from the spending, the St. Louis authors wrote.

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Cars have a death grip on American cities but there is a new movement is taking aim at parking spaces and it's starting to gain traction

For the past century, the public and private sector appear to have agreed on one thing: the more parking, the better.

As a result, cities were built up in ways that devoted valuable space to storing cars, did little to accommodate people who dont own cars and forced developers to build expensive parking structures that increased the cost of living.

Two assumptions undergird urban parking policy: Without convenient parking, car owners would be reluctant to patronize businesses; and absent a dedicated parking spot for their vehicle, theyd be less likely to rent and buy homes. Because parcels of urban land are usually small and pricey, developers will build multistory garages. And so today, a glut of these bulky concrete boxes clutter Americas densely populated cities.

We have been studying urban development and parking for decades. The cars grip over city planning has been difficult to dislodge, despite a host of costs to the environment and to the quality of life for many city dwellers.

But we see signs that thats finally starting to change.

A relic of the car craze

As car ownership exploded in the first half of the 20th century, municipalities started to mandate a minimum number of parking spaces whenever new stores or apartment complexes were built.

Many of these regulations continue to bluntly guide development.

For example, Boulder, Colorado, still requires one parking space per apartment, one spot for every three restaurant seats and one spot for every 175 square feet of retail space. Your communitys zoning regulations are likely all too similar.

Yet parking garages and parking lots end up using precious land to house cars instead of people at a time when cities are confronted with a severe housing shortage and skyrocketing housing costs. Only 20% of homes for sale are affordable to people making average incomes.

A 2016 study found that it cost roughly US$24,000 to $34,000 to build every single new parking space in a garage an amount that has surely grown. Developers typically pass on this expense to renters or buyers.

Parking requirements are a particular burden at many affordable housing developments, where low-income residents are less likely to own cars. Nonetheless, because of these requirements, they receive and inadvertently pay for parking all the same.

Parking garages are monuments to outdated beliefs about what makes cities thrive. They increasingly cater to cars that are rarely used the typical car is parked 95% of the time and ultimately facilitate urban sclerosis.

Do U.S. cities still need to require the construction of parking spots for new residential and retail projects? Arent developers, designers and investors better positioned to worry about these issues for customers, clients or tenants?

Regulation reform

Thankfully, in some parts of the country, a course correction is already underway.

City planners, developers and designers now have new guidelines that make parking spots less of a priority and take into account all of the new ways people get around.

Dozens of cities, including Denver and Minneapolis along with the entire state of California are reforming parking requirements, promoting transportation alternatives and amending regulations for new construction.

Developers are also finding ways to accommodate growing numbers of residents who are forgoing car ownership altogether.

At The Civic, a condominium complex in Portland, Oregon, builders swapped dedicated parking for 24 households for car-share memberships.
At the Casa Arbella Apartments in the Fruitvale neighborhood of Oakland, California, residents receive $150 for transport services and shared bikes.
Mile High Development leased 120 spaces in an adjacent underutilized public garage for Denvers Sheridan Station Apartments, improving the financial solvency of the income-restricted project and passing the savings on to tenants.
1213 Walnut, an apartment complex in Philadelphia, unbundles apartment rents from parking spaces to allow residents to pay for only what they need.
Even in Tempe, Arizona a city thats a poster child for car-centric urban sprawl a development called Culdesac is being built as a car-free community. As a stipulation of living in the 17-acre development, which includes a mix of stores and apartments, residents must agree to never park a car on site.

Mushroom farms and food markets

But what to do with existing garages that suck up choice real estate?

Demolishing these garages requires additional energy, emissions and money. Garages sloped ramps and heavy concrete make adaptation challenging; there isnt a natural transition to, say, loft apartments, like the high-ceilinged, big-windowed mills of the Northeast.

But these impediments havent stopped some developers from creatively repurposing existing garages.

For example, in Wichita, Kansas, Bokeh Development retrofitted a mid-20th-century garage into a 44-unit apartment building. In Denver, developers of the Denizen Apartments have built ground-floor parking designed to be easily converted to stores or apartments if cars fall out of favor.

Other garages support urban agriculture; in Paris, one garage was recently converted to an urban mushroom farm. The open-air top decks of garages have hosted food trucks and food festivals, served as concert venues and operated as sites for solar panels.

These shifts have been spurred, in part, by changes to the way people get around cities, as well as changes to street design. For those who can afford them, ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft can alleviate the need to own and park personal vehicles. Effective mobility as a service is around the corner in most cities, allowing residents to use a single app to connect to an array of transportation options. Electric bicycles and scooters have also expanded the suite of mobility options for city dwellers in a way that regular bikes have struggled to do for generations.

In the coming years, we believe that urban life will rely less and less on providing adequate storage for cars, and the cities of the future will eagerly embrace making urban neighborhoods more inclusive, pedestrian-oriented and climate friendly.

Space in cities is precious. The more human-oriented it can be, the better.

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The Fed raises interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point and says there's more to come

The Federal Reserve extended its fight against high inflation Wednesday by raising its key interest rate by a quarter-point, its eighth hike since March. And the Fed signaled that even though inflation is easing, it remains high enough to require further rate hikes.

The central banks latest move put its benchmark short-term rate in a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, its highest level in about 15 years. Though smaller than its previous hike and even larger rate increases before that the latest move will likely further raise the costs of many consumer and business loans and the risk of a recession.

In a statement, Fed officials repeated language they have used since March that says, ongoing increases in the (interest rate) target range will be appropriate. That is seen as a signal that they intend to raise their benchmark rate again when they next meet in March and perhaps in May as well.

The Feds hike was announced one day after the government reported that pay and benefits for Americas workers grew more slowly in the final three months of 2022, the third straight slowdown. That report could help reassure the Fed that wage gains wont fuel higher inflation.

Speculation is widespread among Wall Street investors and many economists that with inflation continuing to cool, the Fed will soon decide to halt its aggressive drive to tighten credit. When they last met in December, the Feds policymakers forecast that they would eventually raise their benchmark rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%. That level would require two additional quarter-point hikes.

Yet Wall Street investors have priced in only one more hike. Collectively, in fact, they expect the Fed to reverse course and actually cut rates by the end of this year. That optimism has helped drive stock prices up and bond yields down, easing credit and pushing in the opposite direction that the Fed would prefer.

The divide between the Fed and financial markets is important because rate hikes need to work through markets to affect the economy. The Fed directly controls its key short-term rate. But it has only indirect control over borrowing rates that people and businesses actually pay for mortgages, corporate bonds, auto loans and many others.

The consequences can be seen in housing. The average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage soared after the Fed first began hiking rates. Eventually, it topped 7%, more than twice where it had stood before the hiking began.

Yet since the fall, the average mortgage rate has eased to 6.13%, the lowest level since September. And while home sales fell further in December, a measure of signed contracts to buy homes actually rose. That suggested that lower rates might be drawing some home buyers back to the market.

Over the past several months, the Feds officials have reduced the size of their rate increases, from four unusually large three-quarter-point hikes in a row last year to a half-point increase in December to Wednesdays quarter-point hike.

The more gradual pace is intended to help the Fed navigate what will be a high-risk series of decisions this year. The slowdown in inflation suggests that its rate hikes have started to achieve their goal. But measures of inflation are still far above the central banks 2% target. The risk is that with some sectors of the economy weakening, ever-higher borrowing costs could tip the economy into a recession later this year.

Retail sales, for example, have fallen for two straight months, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious about spending. Manufacturing output has fallen for two months. On the other hand, the nations job market the most important pillar of the economy remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a 53-year low at 3.5%.

Over the past year, with businesses sharply raising pay to try to attract and keep enough workers, Powell has expressed concern that wage growth in the labor-intensive service sector would keep inflation too high. Businesses typically pass their increased labor costs on to their customers by charging higher prices, thereby perpetuating inflation pressures.

But recent gauges show that wage growth is slowing. And in December, overall inflation eased to 6.5% in December from a year earlier, down from a four-decade peak of 9.1% in June. The decline has been driven in part by cheaper gas, which has tumbled to $3.50 a gallon, on average, nationwide, from $5 in June.

Supply chain backups have also largely been cleared, leading to a drop in prices for manufactured goods. Used car prices, having skyrocketed in the pandemic amid an auto shortage, have now fallen for several months.

Other major central banks are also fighting high inflation with rate hikes. The European Central Bank is expected to raise its benchmark rate by a half-point when it meets Thursday. Inflation in Europe, though slowing, remains high, at 8.5% in January compared with a year earlier. Food and energy costs are fueling price spikes on the continent after Russias invasion of Ukraine has disrupted energy markets and are still affecting consumers utility bills.

The Bank of England is forecast to lift its rate at a meeting Thursday as well. Inflation has reached 10.5% in the United Kingdom. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the U.K. economy will likely enter recession this year. It expects the U.S. and the 20-nation euro zone to post modest growth.

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What the Feds latest interest rate hike means for homebuyers

Rising rates have made it increasingly difficult for Americans to check off major life milestones like purchasing a car, starting a business, and becoming homeowners. While the Fed has begun to implement smaller rate increases, they havent hit pause on rate hikes just yet.

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the first interest rate increase of 2023a 25 basis point increase (the smallest increase since March 2022). Despite this being a smaller increase than past Fed increases and mortgage rates trending downward since November 2022, this move will likely usher in interest rate increases on several lending products, including credit cards, auto loans, and mortgageseven if only minimal ones.

And experts say it could be a little longer before the Fed pumps the brakes on rate increases altogether.

The Feds job is not done with inflation still running hot and wage pressures persisting, says Boyd Nash-Stacey, senior economist and head of Center of Excellence at Prevedere. This means we are likely to see two more 25 basis point increases in the federal funds rate, bringing the effective benchmark rate to around 5.1%.

How rates are determinedand where mortgage rates currently stand

Your mortgages interest rate is essentially the cost a lender charges you to borrow money to financed the purchase of a home. This rate is expressed as a percentage and can be fixed, meaning that its locked in and wont change throughout the life of your loan. Or, it can be a variable rate, which means that it can (and likely will) change in response to larger changes in the market and economy.

The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage ratestheyre set by individual lenders. However, the Fed does set one crucial rate: the federal funds rate. This rate can have impacts that trickle down to sway rates on consumer lending products like credit card APRs, savings account APYs, auto loan rates, and even mortgage rates.

The federal funds rate is an interest rate that banks charge other banks when they lend one another money, usually overnight or for a few days. Certain regulations require banks to keep a certain percentage of their customers money on reserve, and banks will lend money back and forth to maintain the right level.

When inflation is running high, the Fed will increase rates to increase the cost of borrowing and slow down the economy. When its too low, theyll lower rates to stimulate the economy and get things moving again.

Several factors influence mortgage rates. On a macro-level, mortgage rates tend to increase or decrease in response to the overall health of the economy, the inflation rate, the unemployment rate, and other key economic indicators. On a micro-level, rates will vary from lender to lender and your own financial stats. A mortgage is a loan, and your lender assumes a certain level of risk by loaning you that money depending on your income, credit score, employment situation, and debt.

Today, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at 6.17%, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 5.24%. Just a year ago, those rates stood at 3.73% and 3.01%, respectively.

What happens when the Fed increases or decreases interest rates

The FOMC evaluates various key economic indicators when deciding whether to raise or lower rates. One key signal is the inflation rate. According to the Fed, a 2% inflation rate is the sweet spot for maximum employment and price stability. In 2022, the Fed acted aggressively to tame rising inflation, boosting rates by 50-75 basis points seven times throughout the year.

Those interest rate increases prompted mortgage rates to rise steadily to pre-pandemic levels after hitting record-lows at the start of the pandemicbut rates have kept rising.

The continued drawdown in the Federal Reserves balance sheet, otherwise known as quantitative tightening, will increase the restrictiveness of financial conditions, limiting banks ability to lend and increasing the interest expense for new mortgages, says Nash-Stacey.

5 moves to make if youre preparing to buy a home right now

If youre planning on becoming a homeowner this year, youre at the mercy of the lenders who will decide whether or not to approve you for a mortgage. However, there are moves you can make to better position yourself to secure the best possible rateeven in an high-interest rate environment.

Work on improving your credit score. The higher your credit score, the better chance you have of securing a mortgage with a more favorable rate. Be sure to pay bills, debt, and other monthly payments on time, consistently. If you havent checked your credit score in a while, you should aim to do so before embarking on the homebuying process. If your score is lower than you anticipated, request a free copy of your credit report from one of the three major credit reporting bureaus and comb through it to see if there are any factors or possible errors that could be dragging your score down.
Shop around for the lowest rate. This may seem like a no-brainer, but take your time and compare rates from multiple mortgage lenders. Many offer free quotes online or by phone after youve answered a few key questions about your credit score range, loan amount, loan type and term. This is just an estimate and wont give you a completely accurate rate, but it will give you a ballpark idea of what kind of rate you may be able to secure from each lender. Once youve narrowed your list down, the lender you choose will thoroughly vet you and your financials during the preapproval process through a hard credit inquiry that will help them determine how much youre qualified to borrow.
Save up for a larger down payment. Typically, a larger down payment will help you secure a lower interest rate. The larger your down payment, the less money you have to borrow overall, and the less youll pay in interest over time. Ideally, you should strive to have 20% of your homes purchase price set aside for a down payment, but for many homeowners, and especially first-time home buyers, this can be a stretch. After youve shopped around and taken a look at the rates various lenders are offering you, revisit your personal budget to determine how you might save a little extra for your down payment to reduce your overall borrowing costs and secure a lower rate. Even a fraction of a percentage point can translate to major savings over the life of your loan. You can also supercharge your savings and grow your down payment with the help of an interest-earning savings vehicle like a certificate of deposit or high-yield savings account.
Think carefully about your loan term. Selecting a longer loan term can free up room in your budget to hit more immediate goals, but it will also come with a higher interest rate. If you have the room in your monthly budget to pay more each month, you might consider opting for a loan with a shorter repayment term to reduce how much you pay in interest over time and eliminate your debt a lot sooner.
Be sure to lock in your rate. Mortgage rates are sensitive to a number of external factors, and as such you could benefit from a mortgage rate lock, also known as rate protection.This is offered by lenders (sometimes for an additional fee) to help you lock in the interest rate youre offered during the homebuying process to keep your interest rate from increasing between the time you apply for a mortgage and your closing date. Warning: even if your rate is locked, it can still change if there are changes in your applicationincluding your loan amount, credit score, or verified income.

The takeaway

The Feds latest interest rate increase will almost certainly impact rates on several consumer products. And while you may not be able to control the moves they make, you can help minimize some of the side effects on your home buying journey by improving your credit score, setting clear savings goals, and shopping around for the lowest mortgage rate.

Morgan Stanley's chief strategist thinks stocks are in for a bumpy ride after investors realize there's no more Fed rate cut 'heroin'

With inflation falling from its 40-year high in June, investors are betting the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hiking cycle and pivot to rate cuts this year, juicing markets like they did in the past. But some top Wall Street strategists warn that the rosy outlook for stocks may be overly optimistic.

Morgan Stanleys chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, believes the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, and that corporate earnings will fall.

Once people realize the Feds not cutting ratestheres no more heroin, so to speakthen were going to price the fundamentals, which are clearly deteriorating in our view, he told CNBC Tuesday.

Wilson argues Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold firm and keep raising interest rates this year, arguing that there is no incentive for him to cut rates with the labor market remaining strong and Chinas reopening after COVID lockdowns helping to boost inflation.

I think theyre going to do their job. Jay Powell is here to make sure he gets inflation down, Wilson said, noting that rising commodity prices this month will give the Fed chair ammunition to keep rates higher.

After the S&P 500s over 6% rally in January, Wilson believes that markets are looking frothy as wella term used to indicate that stocks are trading at valuations above their fundamentalsarguing that investors are walking into another bear market trap if they buy at these levels.

Theres this narrative that Chinas reopening and inflation has peaked. We can look through the valley here and start buying early cyclical stocks. I think thats a real mistake, given the degradation in earnings that we think is coming, he said.

Over the past few months, Wilson has repeatedly made the case that a growing number of U.S. corporations are experiencing negative operating leverage (NOL), which, simply put, means costs are rising faster than sales growth.

Nobody saw inflation coming, they all benefited from it, and now theyre underestimating the negative operating leverage cycle, the CIO warned on Tuesday.

In a Sunday note, Wilson explained that costs are rising faster than sales growth in about 80% of S&P 500 industry groups this earnings season, leading profit margins to sink. As inflation and consumer demand fall this year, Wilson says that companies are struggling to get rid of sticky costs and rightsize their businesses.

He noted that from tech companies like Microsoft and Intel to the defense giant Lockheed Martin and the toy company Hasbro, negative operating leverage and falling margins were key themes in many fourth-quarter earnings calls.

We see confirmation of our negative operating leverage thesis, with many companies meeting sales expectations but posting significant misses on earnings, he wrote, adding that corporate guidance for future profits and revenue is also coming down.

Wilson believes that investors should avoid U.S. equities until earnings reflect something closer to reality and valuations fall. Even after Januarys rise, he expects stocks to drop roughly 25% to 3,000 in the first half of this year, before recovering to 3,900 by year-end.

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