Business

Remote work is killing the 30-year-old nonprofit behind 'Take Our Kids to Work Day'

At Michigan State University, children of employees can spend Thursday seeing what its like to staff a dairy farm, work in sports or plant a tree at the schools first in-person Take Our Kids to Work Day since the pandemic began.

Some 1,500 employees and kids have registered and the university has invited staff to bring any child in their life to explore the campus.

This is a way that people can see each other and meet their families, show off MSU, which is designated a family friendly university, said Jaimie Hutchison, director of the universitys WorkLife Office. It also allows people to see what others do across campus and have more pride in the institution that they work for.

MSUs plans recall the roots of Take Our Kids to Work Day, which celebrates its 30th anniversary on Thursday. This year, Take Our Daughters And Sons To Work Foundation, the nonprofit that promotes the day, hopes more organizations remind people of the importance of showing kids where their parents work. The foundation also hopes to get some help to ensure its survival.

The idea of Take Our Kids to Work Day, which the foundation marks annually on the third Thursday in April, seemed like part of a bygone era in recent years because, due to the pandemic, there werent a lot of workplaces to take them.

Many parents were always taking their kids to work or taking their work to wherever the kids were in the dawn of the work-from-home era caused by COVID-19. And for parents who needed to head to a workplace, precautions over limiting the spread of the disease generally kept their kids away.

The foundation has had challenges of its own. It was led for years by Carolyn McKecuen, an entrepreneur, artist and MacArthur Fellow, who Dave Oliveria, the foundations interim executive director, called the linchpin of the organization. She died in November.

The board is trying to pick up the pieces to just keep it going, Oliveria said. The foundation lost money last year and currently has no employees.

This year, it is partnering with Junior Achievement USA to host a virtual event that will include a gameshow format where panelists will answer questions about their careers.

In the coastal town of Brigantine, New Jersey, school superintendent Glenn Robbins is encouraging his staff to bring their children to school and for students to accompany their parents to their workplaces Thursday. He estimates that around 30% of students will participate.

It makes them appreciate things that they might not see when theyre stuck in a school building every day for five days a week, he said.

Over the years, educators and schools have complained that having some students taken out of class is more disruptive than helpful.

Thirty years ago, the head of the Ms. Foundation for Women, Marie Wilson, was inspired by research into the flagging self-esteem of girls when they reached adolescence to suggest that parents bring their daughters to work to expand their sense of possibility.

The foundations cofounder, Gloria Steinem, mentioned the idea in an interview and in the spring of 1993, Take Our Daughters to Work day exploded into reality.

It challenged the workplace to be responsive to the family needs in some ways, even making people aware that many people had children at home, said Teresa Younger, president and CEO of the Ms. Foundation for Women.

Womens participation in the work force has been largely flat since 2000, after picking up in the 1990s. About three-quarters of women aged 25 through 54, a group that filters out students and retirees, were in the workforce in 1993, a figure that reached nearly 78% this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The pandemic disproportionally drove women out of the workforce and they returned more slowly even after lockdown measures ended and available jobs again increased.

The name and date of the day has changed since it started, including boys officially in 2003, though many workplaces have used kid or child for years. Also, companies and workplaces are free to organize a day for employees to bring their children to work whenever and however they like, said Oliveria.

Around 1,000 kids have registered for this years livestream, Junior Achievement US said. But it has always been difficult to measure participation, Oliveria said, but this years participation likely represents a sharp decline from the 18 million kids that the organization said participated between 2005 and 2009.

I dont see evidence of a million people, but I think that many companies can do their own thing and we wouldnt know, Oliveria said. Thats just a tough thing to put your arms around.

Younger said she understands the difficulty of continuing to meet the needs of the current moment.

Thats the challenge of every legacy organization, is: how do we respond to the challenges of now and continue to integrate the work as it needs to be? she asked.

Bringing a child to work is still a meaningful way to create a more economically and socially equitable society, she said. It holds industry accountable for the opportunities that they provide for the next generation and the exposure they provide.

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Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the APs collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of APs philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy.

The long-awaited recession still hasn't arrived. Here are 5 ways to know we're in an official downturn.

The governments report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. Many economists, though, still expect a recession to hit as soon as the current April-June quarter or soon thereafter.

The economys expansion in the first three months of the year was driven mostly by healthy consumer spending, yet shoppers turned more cautious toward the end of the quarter. Businesses also cut their spending on equipment, a trend that has continued.

The list of obstacles the economy faces keeps growing. The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times in the past year to the highest level in 17 years, thereby elevating the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. Inflation has eased slowly but steadily in response. Yet price increases are still persistently high.

And last month the collapse of two large banks resulted in a whole new threat: A pullback in lending by the financial system that could weaken growth even further. A report on business conditions by the Fed this month found that banks were tightening credit to preserve capital, which makes it harder for companies to borrow and expand. Fed economists are forecasting a mild recession for later this year.

Still, there are reasons to expect that a recession, if it does come, will prove to be a comparatively mild one. Many employers, having struggled to hire after huge layoffs during the pandemic, may decide to retain most of their workforces even in a shrinking economy.

Six months of economic decline are a long-held informal definition of a recession. Yet nothing is simple in a post-pandemic economy in which growth was negative in the first half of last year but the job market remained robust, with ultra-low unemployment and healthy levels of hiring.

The economys direction has confounded the Feds policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million Americans were suddenly thrown out of work.

Fed officials have made clear theyre willing to tip the economy into a recession if necessary to defeat high inflation, and most economists believe them.

So what is the likelihood of a recession? Here are some questions and answers:

Why do many economists foresee a recession?

They expect the Feds aggressive rate hikes and high inflation to overwhelm consumers and businesses, forcing them to significantly slow their spending and investment. Businesses will likely also have to cut jobs, causing spending to fall further.

Consumers have so far proved resilient in the face of higher rates and rising prices. Still, there are signs that their sturdiness is starting to crack.

Retail sales have dropped for two straight months. The Feds so-called beige book, a collection of anecdotal reports from businesses around the country, shows that retailers are increasingly seeing consumers resist higher prices.

Credit card debt is also rising, evidence that Americans are having to borrow more to maintain their spending levels, a trend that probably isnt sustainable.

What would be some signs that a recession might have begun?

The clearest signal would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. Claudia Sahm, an economist and former Fed staff member, has noted that since World War II, an increase in the unemployment rate of a half-percentage point over several months has always signaled the start of a recession.

Many economists monitor the number of people who seek unemployment benefits each week, a gauge that indicates whether layoffs are worsening. Weekly applications for jobless aid have been creeping higher as a range of companies, from Facebooks parent company Meta to the industrial conglomerate 3M to the ride-hailing company Lyft, have announced layoffs.

Still, employers added a solid 236,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate slipped to 3.5%, near a half-century low, from 3.6%.

Any other signals to watch for?

Economists monitor changes in the interest payments, or yields, on different bonds for a recession signal known as an inverted yield curve. This occurs when the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the yield on a short-term Treasury, like the three-month T-bill. That is unusual. Normally, longer-term bonds pay investors a richer yield in exchange for tying up their money for a longer period.

Inverted yield curves generally mean that investors foresee a recession that will compel the Fed to slash rates. Inverted curves often predate recessions. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts.

Ever since last July, the yield on the two-year Treasury note has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. And the three-month yield has also risen far above the 10-year, an inversion that has an even better track record at predicting recessions.

Who decides when a recession has started?

Recessions are officially declared by the obscure-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.

The committee considers trends in hiring. It also assesses many other data points, including gauges of income, employment, inflation-adjusted spending, retail sales and factory output. It assigns heavy weight to a measure of inflation-adjusted income that excludes government support payments like Social Security.

Yet the NBER typically doesnt declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year.

Does high inflation typically lead to a recession?

Not always. Inflation reached 4.7% in 2006 at that point the highest level in 15 years without causing a downturn. (The 2008-2009 recession that followed was caused by the bursting of the housing bubble).

But when inflation gets as high as it did last year it reached a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June a recession becomes increasingly likely.

Thats for two reasons: First, the Fed will sharply raise borrowing costs when inflation gets that high. Higher rates then drag down the economy as consumers become less able to afford homes, cars and other major purchases.

High inflation also distorts the economy on its own. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, weakens. And businesses grow uncertain about the economic outlook. Many of them pull back on their expansion plans and stop hiring. This can lead to higher unemployment as some people choose to leave jobs and arent replaced.

French people are literally banging pots and pans to let President Macron know they're mad he's raising the retirement age to 64

Protesters loudly banged pots and pans near a castle where French President Emmanuel Macron was to make a speech Thursday, in what has become a popular way to voice anger at a resented new law raising the retirement age from 62 to 64.

Similar saucepan actions, dubbed casserolades, were staged elsewhere in the country where government members were scheduled to travel.

Macron attended a ceremony for the 175th anniversary of the abolition of slavery in France at the Fort de Joux, near the border with Switzerland, a castle where the most prominent leader of the Haitian slave revolution, Toussaint Louverture, was imprisoned and died in 1803.

As police were preventing protesters from getting too close to the Fort de Joux, Macron made a surprise stop in the nearby town of Dole to meet with French people on a street market without the clattering of pots and pans.

Yet he was not able to avoid all criticism, with several people raising their concerns out loud from the pension changes to rising prices of food and energy and the deterioration of public hospital care.

A woman told him that people disagree with working two more years without making more money in their daily life.

Macron said that we must carry out some reforms, even if they are unpopular, because if we dont, we cannot create wealth and be able to redistribute it.

The hard-left CGT union also staged scattered protests Thursday.

Dozens of protesters and unionists walked in the terminals of the Paris Charles-de-Gaulle airport, singing and holding a big banner writing 64, its no! and demanding the withdrawal of the pension law. The demonstration didnt disrupt flights.

Hundreds of employees of state-owned electricity company Enedis parked their blue company vehicles outside the gates of the iconic Versailles Palace former seat of the French monarchs near Paris, in another symbolic action.

Raising the retirement age ignited a months-long firestorm of protest. Opponents were further angered after Macrons government in March chose to use a special constitutional power to pass the reform without a vote in parliament.

Saucepan actions began last week during a televised speech by Macron. Protesters gathered in over 400 spots in front of town halls and in the streets of Paris, Marseille, Toulouse, Strasbourg and beyond, in an effort to drown out his voice.

Similar events have since been staged each time the French president travelled across France.

All of Frances main unions are planning to hold nationwide protests on May 1 to coincide with International Workers Day.

10 work-from-home jobs for people who hate talking on the phone

The benefits of working from home may be a hot topic of debate among companies, but when it comes to their workers, most are all for it. When people have the chance to work flexibly, 87% of them take it, according to a survey by McKinsey. And that rings true across various demographics, occupations, and geographies.

Some may appreciate avoiding long commutes, while others may enjoy spending more time around their families and pets. For those who have a noisy household, sporadic schedule, or phone anxiety, some work-from-home jobs also provide a way to earn money without actually having to speak to anyone.

Communication will always be important, but what weve learned over the years is there are a number of ways to communicate effectively that dont necessarily involve face-to-face or verbal communication, says Christy Pruitt-Haynes, global head of the talent and performance practice at the NeuroLeadership Institute. The most important thing is that an individual is able to convey their thoughts, ideas, ask questions, and deliver work projects in an effective way that works for them and their organization. Pruitt-Haynes says that as long as someone can demonstrate theyre capable of doing that with minimal conversation, they immediately become an asset to their organization.

As far as locating and securing a work-from-home job that requires minimal verbal or face-to-face interaction, Pruitt-Haynes says its a similar process to finding any other role. The most important feature is knowing exactly what youre looking for, and looking for organizations that are open to various means of communication.

10 WFH jobs that dont require talking over phone or video

While you probably cant avoid a face-to-face job interview or periodic check-ins with your boss, there are several legitimate work-from-home careers that dont require talking on the phone or video chatting to perform the main job functions. So if youre looking for a way to earn money while working independently, consider the following options.

1. Chat customer service agent

These days, businesses are looking to connect with customers and provide support through every channel possible. That includes live chat, social media, text, and email. As a chat customer service agent, you provide that support by answering questions, troubleshooting problems, and more, all without speaking with customers on the phone or over video.

To qualify for this type of job, youll need to be a proficient typist with excellent spelling and grammar skills. You should also be fairly tech-savvy. Hourly wages for a chat customer service representative typically fall between $16 to $20, with an average of $18 per hour.

2. Transcriber

Another way to put top-notch typing skills to useand work independentlyis by transcribing audio and visual files into written documents for businesses. In addition to being a fast and accurate typist (you should be able to type at least 70 WPM), you also need to be great at listening and spelling, and have excellent attention to detail.

There are many types of transcribing jobs, including marketing, medical, and legal. The typical entry-level salary for an audio transcriptionist ranges between $45,100 and $56,400, with an average of $50,600 annually.

3. Community moderator

If you enjoy spending your time online and interacting with others via social media, you may want to consider a job as a community moderator. These marketing professionals monitor discussions and debates for a company or brand.

As a community moderator, youll oversee online forums, groups, or social media accounts to ensure the rules are followed, questions are answered, and spam is removed. Entry-level salaries for a community moderator generally range between $38,166 to $55,624 annually, with an average of $45,512 annually.

4. Virtual assistant

For those who are great at managing many day-to-day tasks and staying organized, working as a virtual assistant could be a great remote job that allows you to avoid the phone. VAs perform various administrative tasks such as answering emails, data entry, bookkeeping, proofreading, research, etc. Some virtual assistant positions, such as those that support sales teams or top executives, may require making or receiving phone calls, but plenty exist that dont involve phones.

A virtual personal assistants typical entry-level salary range is $30,233 to $37,287 per year, with an average of 33,447 annually.

5. Freelance writer or editor

If youre good at editing and writing content and have great time and project management skills, consider freelance writing or editing. You can set your rates and work much or as little as you like. You can also decide what types of clients you want to work with, including those that collaborate over tools such as email or Slack rather than the phone or Zoom.

Freelance writers can bill for their work a number of ways, but its common to get paid per-project. Entry-level freelance writers typically earn between $46,378 and $64,392 per year, with an average salary of $56,060. Editors typically charge an hourly rate, which ranges between $27 and $35 per hour for an entry-level position, with the average being $31 per hour.

6. Graphic designer

Another creative career that allows you to work from home independently is graphic design. Using software like Photoshop or Canva, you can create visual content for print or web. You might work on creating logos, digital illustrations, advertisements, product packaging, and more.

Graphic designers can work as freelancers or as part of a full-time, in-house team. Typical entry-level salaries for graphic designers range between $51,901 and $66,501, with an average salary of $58,201 per year.

7. Data entry clerk

Data entry involves gathering and entering information into a database, spreadsheet, or other type of document. Some positions may also involve visualizing that data with graphs and charts. Many businesses outsource data entry jobs, which you can easily do at home on your own.

Youll need fast and accurate typing skills, as well as great attention to detail. In some cases, you may also need excellent research skills or specialized software knowledge. The typical entry-level salary range for a data entry clerk is between $32,957 and $41,538, with the average being $36,794 per year.

8. Data scientist

If you love sifting through numbers and spreadsheets, you may make a great data scientist. This job involves helping companies solve problems and make decisions by analyzing complex sets of data, interpreting and synthesizing the information, and providing reports to business stakeholders.

Youll need a strong background in math, statistics, or economics to get a job as a data scientist. The good news is that with more specialized expertise comes higher pay. Entry-level salaries for data scientists range between $66,948 and $81,161 annually, with the average being $74,678.

9. Software developer

Another career for the technically minded, working as a software developer can easily be done from home and usually doesnt require interaction on a day-to-day basis. In this role, youll create code for software and updates, look for ways to improve existing software systems, create operational manuals, and more.

Most software developers need a degree in software engineering, computer science, or a related field. The entry-level salary range for a software developer is usually around $69,490 to $83,390 per year, with an average of $75,790 annually.

10. Closed captioner

A closed captioner writes the text that appears on screen when youre watching TV, a movie, broadcast, or other type of video, so that those who cannot hear the audio can read whats being said. This is another position that requires excellent listening and typing skills. While some closed captioners work live events, you can also choose a role where you transcribe audio from prerecorded video files at home.

The entry-level salary range for a closed captioning job is from $45,878 to $65,674 per year, with an average salary of $53,997.

The takeaway

Not everyone feels comfortable picking up the phone or sitting in front of a camera. Fortunately, there are many jobs that offer the ability to work independently from home, without the need to make calls.

The exact roles and pay available to you will depend on your location, skills, experience, and more. But whether youre looking for a side hustle to give your budget some more breathing room, or a full-time career with benefits like health insurance and a 401(k), there are opportunities for just about anyone willing to take the time and find them.

The economy grew last quarter but not by much and its showing signs of a big slowdown

The U.S. economy slowed sharply from January through March, decelerating to just a 1,1% annual pace as higher interest rates hammered the housing market and businesses reduced inventories.

Thursdays estimate from the Commerce Department showed that the nations gross domestic product the broadest gauge of economic output weakened after growing 3.2% from July through September and 2.6% from October through November.

The slowdown reflects the impact of the Federal Reserves aggressive drive to tame inflation, with nine interest rate hikes over the past year. The surge in borrowing costs is expected to send the economy into a recession sometime this year. Though inflation has steadily eased from the four-decade high it reached last year, it remains far above the Feds 2% target.

The housing market, which is especially vulnerable to higher loan rates, has been battered. Consumer spending, which fuels roughly 70% of the entire economy, has softened. And many banks have tightened their lending standards since the failure last month of two major U.S. banks, making it even harder to borrow to buy a house or a car or to expand a business.

Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Feds rate hikes has yet to be fully felt. Yet the central banks policymakers are aiming for a so-called soft landing: Cooling growth enough to curb inflation yet not so much as to send the worlds largest economy tumbling into a recession.

There is widespread skepticism that the Fed will succeed. An economic model used by the Conference Board, a business research group, puts the probability of a U.S. recession over the next year at 99%.

The Conference Boards recession-probability gauge had hung around zero from September 2020, as the economy rebounded explosively from the COVID-19 recession, until March 2022, when the Fed started raising rates to fight inflation.

Consumers, whose spending accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic output, seem to be starting to feel the chill. Retail sales had enjoyed a strong start in January, aided by warmer-than-expected weather and bigger Social Security checks. But in February and again in March, retail sales tumbled.

The worst fears of a 2008-style financial crisis have eased over the past month. But lingering credit cutbacks, which were mentioned in the Feds survey this month of regional economies, is likely to hobble growth.

Political risks are growing, too. Congressional Republicans are threatening to let the federal government default on its debts, by refusing to raise the statutory limit on what it can borrow, if Democrats and President Joe Biden fail to agree to spending restrictions and cuts. A first-ever default on the federal debt would shatter the market for U.S. Treasurys the worlds biggest and possibly cause a global financial crisis.

The global backdrop is also looking bleaker. The International Monetary Fund this month downgraded its forecast for worldwide economic growth, citing rising interest rates around the world, financial uncertainty and chronic inflation. American exporters could suffer as a consequence.

Still, the U.S. economy has surprised before. Recession fears rose early last year after GDP had shrunk for two straight quarters. But the economy roared back in the second half of 2022, powered by surprisingly sturdy consumer spending.

A strong job market has given Americans the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep shopping: 2021 and 2022 were the two best years for job creation on record. And hiring has remained strong so far this year, though it has decelerated from January to February and then to March.

The jobs report for April, which the government will issue on May 5, is expected to show that employers added a decent but still-lower total of 185,000 jobs this month, according to a survey of forecasters by FactSet.

Ron DeSantis dismisses Disney lawsuit as political: 'Theyre upset because theyre having to live by the same rules as everybody else'

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday shrugged off Disneys lawsuit against him as politically motivated, and that it was time for the iconic company to stop enjoying favorable treatment in his state.

Disney sued DeSantis on Wednesday over the Republicans appointment of a board of supervisors in its self-governed theme park district, alleging the governor waged a targeted campaign of government retaliation after the company opposed a law critics call, Dont Say Gay.

The legal filing is the latest salvo in a more than year-old feud between Disney and DeSantis that has engulfed the governor in criticism as he prepares to launch an expected 2024 presidential bid.

Theyre upset because theyre having to live by the same rules as everybody else. They dont want to pay the same taxes as everybody else and they want to be able to control things without proper oversight, DeSantis said during a visit to Israel. The days of putting one company on a pedestal with no accountability are over in the state of Florida.

DeSantis was speaking on the third leg of an international trip meant to burnish his foreign policy credentials ahead of a potential campaign for the Republican presidential nomination as a key rival to former President Donald Trump.

DeSantis has dived headlong into the fray with Disney, a major driver of tourism and a font for employment in Florida, as business leaders and White House rivals have bashed his stance as a rejection of the small-government tenets of conservatism.

The fight began last year after Disney, in the face of significant pressure, publicly opposed a state law that bans classroom lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in early grades, a policy critics call Dont Say Gay.

DeSantis then took over Disney Worlds self-governing district and appointed a new board of supervisors to oversee municipal services in the sprawling theme parks. But before the new board came in, the company pushed though an 11th-hour agreement that stripped the new supervisors of much of their authority.

The Disney lawsuit asks a federal judge to void the governors takeover of the theme park district, as well as the DeSantis oversight boards actions, on the grounds that they were violations of the companys free speech rights.

In a speech to a conference at Jerusalems Museum of Tolerance, DeSantis spelled out his Middle East policy, speaking of the importance of the U.S.-Israel alliance. He said Israel was the only authority that could protect freedom of worship for all in combustible Jerusalem and that the U.S. embassy was rightfully moved to the city by the Trump administration, despite opposition from Palestinians.

He repeated his opposition to the deal that aimed to rein in Irans nuclear program, saying it empowered that countrys rulers rather than held them back. The Iran nuclear deal passed under Obama. His sucessor, Trump, revoked the U.S. agreement to it.

DeSantis also said the U.S. shouldnt interfere in the way Israel chooses to be governed, a direct critique of President Joe Biden, who has voiced concerns about a contentious Israeli government plan to overhaul the countrys judiciary.

DeSantis began his multi-country trip in Japan and then traveled to South Korea. After Israel, he heads to Britain.

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Goldenberg reported from Tel Aviv, Israel.

Swedens Klarna burned through $100 million a month to become a buy-now-pay-later giant in the U.S. Can ChatGPT help it turn a profit again?

The snow is falling heavily in Stockholm, but inside a small, pitch-dark auditorium, the atmosphere is cozy and warm. A buzz of anticipation gives the space the feel of a music club as about 300 people wait for the headline act. When a tall man strides up on stage in a Palm Angels flannel shirt and black lace-up boots, he looks in fact like he might pick up an electric guitar and play for the crowd.

That would be apt: Sebastian Siemiatkowski is a rock star to many of the tech execs and investors attending this daylong conference on startups. The CEO and cofounder of Klarnathe $6.7 billion-valuation, buy-now-pay-later companyhelped invent a new industry in his early 20s, built his company to become Europes most valuable startup, and more recently made it a player in the biggest market in the world: The U.S.

At this moment, Siemiatkowski does not feel like a star. He admits he is weathering a grueling year. Klarnas private-market valuation has plunged 85%, hit by rising interest rates, the Ukraine war, and the specter of recession. Hes been forced to lay off more than 700 people, including some friendsabout 10% of the companys workforce. And Klarna recently posted its biggest-ever annual net loss, of $1 billion for 2022. Ive been at this for 18 years, right? he tells the audience, assembled by tech news site Sifted. I feel sometimes like an old man or woman. As if to underscore that idea, at one point he stretches his long legs out so far that he topples over, upturning his chair.

In fintech years, Siemiatkowski is indeed old. (In human years, hes 41.) When he launched his startup in 2005, he was a pioneer. Now he finds himself in an ever-more crowded field as corporate titans seize on the rocketing popularity of BNPL, which lets consumers defer payment on purchases without incurring interest (at least not right away). While estimates of BNPLs market size vary wildly, GlobalData predicts global BNPL global transactions could rise from about $120 billion in 2021 to $576 billion in 2026.

In the U.S., about 20% of consumers now use BNPL, according to surveys by Morning Consult, a decision intelligence company in Washington, D.C. Its carved itself a permanent place in peoples wallets, says Charlotte Principato, a Morning Consult financial services analyst.

For Siemiatkowski, BNPLs success is both a blessing and curse. Klarna has grown steadily since its early years, first regionally, then globally. In February, it announced that the U.S. had overtaken Germany as its biggest market by revenue, with 34 million Klarna users in the countrymore than one in five of its customers worldwide.

And yet, the next wave of users might be harder for Klarna to win. New competitors include giants like PayPal and Citi. In late March, Apple began offering Apple Pay Later to 500 million Apple Pay subscribers, enabling them to pay in four installments, just like Klarna does, for purchases up to $1,000.

The question for Siemiatkowski is whether his company can maintain its leading position. The CEO is believed to own a little under 10% of Klarna, and to be weighing an IPO (the company will confirm neither detail); in total, Klarna has raised $4.5 billion. As it battles to stay on top, the company is rethinking and expanding its business modelwith a recently announced assist from ChatGPT.

It is such a massive market, there is enough money to make, Siemiatkowski says at the Stockholm conference. He believes fintech will winnow down to its strongest playersand that Klarna will be among them. The pie will be smaller, but our slice will be bigger, he says.

Meeting in the marshmallow room

Step into Klarnas headquarters in downtown Stockholm, and there is little sense of a company under pressure. The space is awash in the companys bubblegum-pink brand color, with hyper-modern artwork on the floors and walls. Klarnas latest brand ambassador, Paris Hilton, gazes down from a large screen, looming over a lilac seat that looks like its covered in soft fabric, but turns out to be painted concrete. Pink meeting rooms are named for sweet treats, and Siemiatkowski and I initially settle into the marshmallow room (flanked by brownie and cookie).

A conference room at Klarnas headquarters in Stockholm.

Courtesy of Klarna

The staff (including Siematkowski) works in glass-walled offices, each containing seven or eight people. Siematkowski typically leaves the office around 5 p.m., racing home to his own large, glass-walled residence filled with contemporary art (the Wall Street Journal calls it an attention-getting home). There, he has dinner with his wife, whom he met at college, and their three children, age 9, 7 and 5; he reads Famous Fiveadventure stories to the kids at bedtime. I love reading to my kids, he says. It is one of my favorite things. He works from home at night, with calls to Klarnas U.S. headquarters in Columbus, Ohio.

Siematkowski may project homey values, but he runs a hard-boiled business in a cut-throat industry. By advancing shoppers very short-term loans, Klarna assumes the financial risks of retail credit, while giving retailers ready access to millions of customers. Shoppers can choose to pay, interest-free, either in four equal installments every two weeks or within 30 days; alternatively, they can pay over the course of two years, with interest rates rising to a steep 29.99%.

Klarna makes most of its money by charging transaction fees to merchants for whose sales consumers use Klarna. There are also fees charged to users for late payments and interest repayments. The company says it has more than 500,000 partner retailers in 42 markets worldwide, along with more than 150 million users, of which 24 million are monthly users of Klarnas app. Gross revenues in 2022 were 19.3 billion Swedish kronor ($1.84 billion), up 21% from 2021.

Last year, Klarna launched a Visa credit card in the U.S. Siemiatkowski believes more and more shoppers will opt to defer payments in the years ahead, calling it a trillion-dollar market opportunity.

Shoppers join, retailers follow

Given Siemiatkowskis childhood, it was a longshot that he would play a leading role in a trillion-dollar industry. His parents left Communist-run Poland the year before he was born, and scraped together a basic living, mostly by his father driving a taxi. There were weeks we were out of food, he tells me as we walk through his sumptuous headquarters. I would eat pancakes every day, because thats the only thing my mother had: Flour.

Siemiatkowski describes himself as a classic, driven immigrant kid, cobbling together ideas from age 13. He came of age just as Stockholm was becoming a fertile hotbed of disruptive tech. It was here in the 2000s and 2010s that Spotify revolutionized music streaming, Mojang Studios invented Minecraft, and King Games invented Candy Crush. At 23, while studying at the Stockholm School of Economics, Siemiatkowski and his friend Niklas Adalberth delivered a pitch to angel investors at a student Christmas event, with a new concept: Buy now, pay later.

The idea bombed. They were all saying, Guys dont do this, the banks will do this, theres no way youre going to succeed, Adalberth (who left the company in 2015) later recalled. Siemiatkowski says his parents were vehemently opposed, too, pushing him to get a nice corporate job with a steady paycheck. But with a third friend, Victor Jacobsson, the duo raised $60,000, giving themselves six months to succeed or move on.

Naively, the three friends offered tech engineers 37% of their startup, in exchange for building the platform. The techies sold out when Klarnas valuation hit $10 milliona disastrous error. By 2013, Klarna was valuedat $1 billion, with 10 million users, and in 2015, it reached a $2 billion valuation.

Yet Siemiatkowski knew that for Klarna to reach truly powerful scale, it needed to break into the U.S. In 2015, it was nowhere near ready. The Klarnauts, as the company calls its employees, spent the next few years speeding up payments, designing a broader app and a browser extension, and approaching hundreds of U.S. merchants. Siemiatkowski says most rebuffed them. Afterpay, a Klarna clone founded in Australia in 2014, and San Francisco-based Affirm Holdings had already launched in the U.S. We came into the biggest market in the world, and were competing with a superfast-moving startup, he says of Afterpay. We were behind.

He decided it would be easier to sign consumers than retailers; retailers would inevitably follow. With investments from BlackRock, Silver Lake, Softbank, and others, Klarna plowed millions into marketing in the U.S., recasting itself as a brand dedicated to that all-American devotion: Shopping. As it had in Sweden, the company sold itself as hip and fun, down to the bubblegum pinkthe antithesis of the banks and credit-card companies familiar to U.S. consumers.

Its big American breakthrough came with a viral 2021 Super Bowl ad, showing SNL actress Maya Rudolph, in quadruplicate, riding four horses into a Wild West town to buy cowboy boots (pink, of course)boots for which customers could Pay in 4 with Klarna. That June, rapper A$AP Rockywho Siemiatkowski recruited as an investorteased his new album in another Klarna ad in which he strode through (fake) New York City streets; users could win the bathrobe and slippers he wore by uploading selfies on Klarna.

By summers end, Klarna had 20 million American users. As Siemiatkowski predicted, retailers followed. We had one metric we showed everyone, he says. Who has the most downloads, Afterpay or Klarna? We had two or three times the downloads. That number shot up last year, making the U.S. Klarnas biggest market. Klarnas gross merchandise volumes in the U.S. rose 71% in 2022 over 2021.

The summer of 2021 also brought Klarnas valuation to its high-water mark: A June funding round valued the company at $45.6 billion, a peak no other European startup had achieved.

The high cost of success

Reaching that peak came at a cost. Siemiatkowski estimates Klarna was burning through $100 million a month to build a U.S. market. What we describe as losses were investments, Siemiatkowski tells me. We were investing very aggressively in the future. Marketing wasnt the only mounting expense. Like other BNPL companies, Klarna takes out short-term loans cover customers purchases; as interest rates rose through 2022, those loans got more expensive.

With losses mounting, investors pushed for cuts, and some employees paid a personal price.

Last May, Siemiatkowski called an all-hands staff meeting, for which he pre-recorded a video announcing the layoffs of 10% of the Klarnauts. He told employees that business plans for 2022 had been drafted before Russia invaded Ukraine, accelerating the planets soaring inflation and sinking markets. It was a very different world than the one were in today, he said.

To some employees, the message was devoid of empathy; in the U.S. it was delivered by managers who refused to take questions. Worse, just weeks before the Ukraine invasion, Klarnas board had given Siemiatkowski a 35% pay raise (to 13 million Swedish kronor, or $1.25 million, annually).

For years, Klarna had trumpeted its strong performance, leaving employees unprepared for layoffs. Some employees blamed the cutbacks on Klarnas heavy spending in the U.S Gergely Orosz, an Amsterdam-based software engineer, spoke to 30 Klarna employees as he covered the layoffs on his widely followed Pragmatic Engineer newsletter. Those laid off in the U.S. did not have their health insurance covered beyond the end of the month, Orosz wrote.

The string of bad news teed up the company for something every private company dreads: A down round. In July, Klarna raised $800 million in a round led by longtime investor Sequoia Capital, for a valuation of only $6.7 billion.

Siemiatkowski tells me he remains anguished by the layoffs. You have all this amazing positive emotion around, building things, doing things, he says. Then suddenly, you need to put a halt to it.I was very sad. Of course I cried.

Teaming up with ChatGPT

Nearly a year on, the shakeout seems to have signaled a turning point for Klarna. No longer a scrappy startup, the company is now a multinational giant. And its future could partly depend on a technology that is capable of transforming ecommerce at lightning speed: Generative A.I.

Shortly after Siemiatkowski and I met in Stockholm, OpenAI announced it had selected Klarna as one of the first 12 companies to use a ChatGPT plug-in on their platformsto serve as early case studies in how the technology works.

Siemiatkowski says he believes generative A.I. will dramatically change Klarna, from a platform focused on payment options to a shopping comparison tool knitted into customers lives. He claims he predicted such a development as far back as 2015. We sat down, and said, Look, eventually you will wake up in the morning, and your computer will say, Hey, Ive analyzed your mortgage while you were sleeping, and realized you could save ten dollars, he recalls. Now, he says, A.I. will enable that.

Such an evolution could be crucial to helping Klarna differentiate itself from proliferating rivals. BNPL players will have to diversify, says Principato of Morning Consult. Otherwise, she says, they could get bought by banks for their BNPL tech.

Its not hard to imagine Klarnas ChatGPT plug-in creating eerily accurate profiles of millions of peoples tastes and shopping habits; indeed, Klarna has begun asking consumers to opt into data-sharing with merchants, to enable accurate product targeting. This tech allows us to move and scale at a pace that was unthinkable a few years ago, Siematkowski says. Ive never seen anything like this.

Neither, it seems, have privacy advocates and governments. Even before generative A.I.s explosive debut last November, there were mounting concerns among regulators about BNPLs sharp growthand the massive amounts of data Klarna and its competitors were harnessing about their users.

Buy-now-pay-later lenders can gather extraordinarily detailed information about your purchase behavior, in a way traditional cards cannot, said Rohit Chopra, director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), in a statement last September. Klarna says it collects user data largely for fraud protection and underwriting purposes and does not sell it to third parties.

Theres also a more traditional worrythat BNPL blinds consumers to the debt theyre piling up. A CFPB official tells Fortune that the agency fears BNPL encourages loan stacking, in which consumers use several different platforms simultaneously, loading up on debt obligations. Some are utilizing them so heavily that they may have difficulty making payments on other things, like student loans and auto loans, the official says.

Klarna employees at Stockholm HQ.

Courtesy of Klarna

Siemiatkowski rejects that, saying Klarnas credit is offered for shorter time periods than credit cards, and that the company will cut off consumers who dont repay. By contrast, he says, credit-card companies encourage users to accumulate debt, the better to collect high interest.

One way or another, he argues, people will borrow money, either from unscrupulous lenders, or friends, or legitimate companies like Klarna. First and foremost you have to ask, should credit exist for purchases? he says. My answer is yes.

Klarna, its founder insists, is simply offering them an unusually seamless, high-tech way to get that credit. And despite his companys current slump, demand seems to be here to stay.