Initially, official estimates suggested a decline of 0.2% and stagnation, respectively.

So, what is going on here?

The root cause for the countrys ills is shrinking consumer spending over the winter exacerbated by higher energy costs from the abrupt shift away from reliance on cheap Russian oil and gas. 

Domestic consumers typically must save a much higher portion of their income due to a comparably low rate of home ownership and the lack of a widespread equity culture.

Yet the 1.2% Q1 decline proved worse than anticipated as 9%-plus annualized inflation rates ate into their disposable income.

The arrival of warmer temperatures and lower heating bills points to short-term relief, but a combination of factors suggests Europes once dynamic economic engine will ultimately stall as higher interest rates cool off activity in capital-intensive industries like manufacturing and construction. 

The Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Düsseldorf predicts only lukewarm growth in the upcoming summer months: Unlike in other phases of expansion, the recovery in China is not being supported through robust investments from which the German export economy can profit.

Recovery already under way

The chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, which co-publishes a purchasing managers index for Germany together with S&P Global, believes the recession has already ended thanks to a recovery sparked by the service sector. 

There are still signs of pent-up demand here following Corona, whether its for traveling or eating out at a restaurant, Cyrus de la Rubia told Fortune.

Moreover, the financial sector is not about to throttle the supply of credit to the real economy, as is widely feared in the United States following the collapse of three major regional banks. 

Lending conditions are certainly tightening, but not excessively in a historical context, and certainly not to the extent that one should fear a credit crunch, de la Rubia said.  

Nevertheless, higher borrowing costs and weak export prospects for China mean he is only expecting tepid growth of 0.2% for the full year. 

The fact that Germanys 40 blue chips comprising the DAX closed at a new record high on Friday amid such challenging economic conditions is in part due to one important aspect that differentiates it, de la Rubia explained.

Its a so-called performance index based on total shareholder returns.

That means the automatic reinvestment of dividends is incorporated into its calculation, he said. If you look at the price index adjusted for this effect thats comparable to the S&P 500, youll see that its still markedly below its all-time high.

At Revelio Labs, where we gather the world of publicly available workforce data to understand labor trends, we found that over 90% of laid-off H1-B visa holders were able to secure new work that met the programs rigid criteria. In fact, compared to native workers, immigrants found work 10 days faster, largely because with so much at stake, they were more likely to move states for a new jobbut thats where room to be flexible ends, as visa holders are only permitted to take roles directly related to their specialty training.

In fact, we found that while 67% of non-immigrant workers changed roles after being laid off, only 49% of visa holders did the same. With Big Tech tightening its belt so drastically, how were so many able to find roles in their specialty? The answer has to do with market demand. 

Tech jobs remain highly prevalent outside of tech companies. In this way, the stars aligned for laid-off tech workers on H1-B visas, as one door closed, many others were sitting open. The H1-B Visa program works best when it allows participants to ebb and flow in lockstep with market demand, but its not a naturally market-sensitive talent pipeline. According to Revelio Labs data, 78% of Fortune 500 companies are currently sitting with critical roles going unfilled for six months or morewhich wouldnt be the case if the H1-B visa program afforded holders more flexibility, and if there was greater cooperation between public and private actors to funnel qualified talent where its most needed.

Even as layoffs continue, our labor shortages arent going anywhere. Revelio Labs found that over 43.4% of companies had more than 50 technical roles that they were unable to fill in the past year, which make up 68.8% of approved H-1B visa holders in 2021.

As it stands, our system for awarding visas, which could otherwise be a reliable talent pipeline to both fill open roles and make it possible to recruit the best and the brightest from all corners of the globe, is being hamstrung by stipulations that limit mobility for visa holders in a market that demands movement. In a truly market-sensitive visa award system, companies would instead get the staff they need. In the long term, it could help stabilize the workforce, lower the cost of talent shortages, and bridge skills gaps, all of which is expected to total aloss of up to $162 billion by 2030.

One of the most lamentedand detrimentalaspects of the H1-B visa process is the 65,000 cap on how many visas can be awarded each year (plus an additional 20,000 for holders of U.S. graduate degrees), which has been the same since the inception of the program over two decades ago. In 2023, alone meant that over 483,000 applicants were turned away despite the millions of jobs sitting open.

This isnt the first year demand has outstripped this limited supply. Between 2008 and 2020, the cap was maxed out within the first five business days of opening the application on several occasions. Last year, the number of visa registrations climbed by 56.8%.

To make a dent in the millions of roles sitting vacant, we need flexible, market-sensitive visa policies to determine the flow of foreign labornot arbitrary and outdated federal limitations.

Local municipalities are in the best position to determine the number of foreign workers they can absorb. Firms spend $5,000 to $10,000 more to hire H1-B visa holders than U.S. citizens. Instead of throwing time and resources into a federal system that may or may not result in addressing a company or communitys talent needs, companies could pay municipalities where their foreign worker resides and receive a guaranteed visa in return. Companies get the workers they needand municipalities get desperately needed revenue in return.

Chicago offers a glimpse of what it might look like if municipalities are empowered to take hiring foreign workers into their own hands. The city recently launched a coordinated effort between 35 firms willing to hire H1-B visa holders and a nonprofit organization to build special jobs listing website advertising these jobs as being willing to sponsor H1-B visas. This private-public partnership hopes to fill over 400,000 open roles by tapping into the pool of workers laid off from the tech sector who are here on a visa. Its a great place to startand a model that would be even more scalable and sustainable if the revenue from firms footing the bill for visa applications went back to the city instead of the federal government.

This should shape the way we look at todays headlines about recent layoffs in Silicon Valley that have left thousands of employees hired on the H-1B visa with limited options and only 60 days to find new opportunities. The disruption to peoples lives is unimaginable. If we cant find better ways to stabilize and retain foreign workers, its likely many of those laid-off workers will return to their home countries or countries with more immigrant-friendly policies like Canada, New Zealand or Switzerland to name just a few that outrank the U.S. The loss of talent will ripple through our communities and Americas position in the global economy.

Weve rightly made strides to correct hiring practices that discriminate against people because of their race, religion or gender, but the way our current visa system is set up, we allow geography to wrongly disqualify even the most talented applicants. If markets and merit (rather than a lottery) have the final say on what labor we welcomed and where, wed not only have far fewer job vacancies but also the best and brightest from around the world contributing to our workforce and our communities.

When we cant hire and retain the top non-native talent, we hand global competitors what used to be Americas greatest edge. The tangled web of U.S. immigration policy is many reforms away from serving our best economic interestbut theres too much at stake to keep standing in our own way. Solving this issue will help firms get the talent they need, help our cities grow, and create a more efficient and fairer workforce.

Ben Zweig is a labor economist and the CEO of Revelio Labs.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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For those graduating from a four-year course, their tenure as college students has seen them navigating a pandemic, economic uncertainty and political division, the effects of which are still lingering and impacting Gen Zs outlook on work.

Enter billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, who took to Twitter on Thursday to share his tips for graduates leaving education behind to pursue their dream careers.

Youre about to enter the beginning of the second phase of your life which is totally different from the first, Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associatesa hedge fund firm with around $125 billion in assets under managementin 1975.

Realize that you know virtually nothing about what its like so you need to learn what its like and how to be great at it.

He added: To be young and have all that adventure ahead of you is wonderful. Make the most of it!

Here are some of Dalios top tips for new graduates:

Build strong relationships

Dalios first piece of advice for grads was to seek out and foster working relationshipsespecially with more experienced colleagues.

Be humble and maximize your learning, ideally working in an apprentice relationship with a great boss/mentor and in a great community, he said. Realize that meaningful work and meaningful relationships will fulfill you and help you be more successful Understand what you and those around you are like.

The Bridgewater founder also noted the importance of working in the right environment.

Pick your culture well. Make sure you always have the right to make sense of things, he advised. Be radically truthful and transparent so that you triangulate with others and build better relationships.

Exploreand fail

According to Dalio, its important for young professionals to try out new things and make mistakes in the process.

Experiment a lot to explore different life paths and learn from trial and error, he said. Be open-minded and assertive at the same time and learn how to struggle and fail well. Remember that life is a journey in which you encounter obstacles and that pain + reflection = progress.

Remember why youre working

While Dalio touted pursuing a passion and getting things wrong, he also issued a reminder that we work to earn and that money management is something everyone should be getting right.

Make your work and your passion the same thing and dont forget about the money part, he said on Thursday. Be self-sufficient plus (i.e. make more than you spend and save) because that will give you freedom and security.

The state Medical Licensing Board voted that Dr. Caitlin Bernard didnt abide by privacy laws when she told a newspaper reporter about the girls treatment in a case that became a flashpoint in the national abortion debate days after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer.

The board, however, rejected accusations from Indianas Republican attorney general that Bernard violated state law by not reporting the child abuse to Indiana authorities. Board members chose to fine Bernard $3,000 for the violations, turning down a request from the attorney generals office to suspend Bernards license. The board issued no restrictions on her practice of medicine.

Bernard has consistently defended her actions, and she told the board on Thursday that she followed Indianas reporting requirements and hospital policy by notifying hospital social workers about the child abuse and that the girls rape was already being investigated by Ohio authorities. Bernards lawyers also said that she didnt release any identifying information about the girl that would break privacy laws.

The Indianapolis Star cited the girls case in a July 1 article that sparked a national political uproar in the weeks after last summers Roe v. Wade decision put into effect an Ohio law that prohibited abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. Some news outlets and Republican politicians falsely suggested Bernard fabricated the story, until a 27-year-old man was charged with the rape in Columbus, Ohio. During an event at the White House, President Joe Biden nearly shouted his outrage over the case.

Medical board President Dr. John Strobel said he believed Bernard went too far in telling a reporter about the girls pending abortion and that physicians need to be careful about observing patient privacy.

I dont think she expected this to go viral, Strobel said of Bernard. I dont think she expected this attention to be brought to this patient. It did. It happened.

Bernards lawyer Alice Morical told the board Thursday that the doctor reported child abuse of patients many times a year and that a hospital social worker had confirmed with Ohio child protection staffers that it was safe for the girl to leave with her mother.

Dr. Bernard could not have anticipated the atypical and intense scrutiny that this story received, Morical said. She did not expect that politicians would say that she made the story up.

Amid the wave of attention to the girls case last summer, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, who is stridently anti-abortion, told Fox News he would investigate Bernards actions and called her an abortion activist acting as a doctor.

Deputy Attorney General Cory Voight argued Thursday that the board needed to address what he called an egregious violation of patient privacy and Bernards failure to notify Indianas Department of Child Services and police about the rape.

Theres been no case like this before the board, Voight said. No physician has been as brazen in pursuit of their own agenda.

Voight asked Bernard why she discussed the Ohio girls case with the newspaper reporter and later in other news media interviews rather than using a hypothetical situation.

I think that its incredibly important for people to understand the real-world impacts of the laws of this country about abortion, Bernard said. I think its important for people to know what patients will have to go through because of legislation that is being passed, and a hypothetical does not make that impact.

Board member Dr. Bharat Barai opposed finding that Bernard violated privacy laws, saying that she released no direct protected identifying information such as the girls name or address. He disagreed with the board majoritys view that the combination of information about the rare instance of a pregnant 10-year-old girl could have exposed her identity.

We are trying to suppose that yeah this could have been done and maybe somebody could have discovered it, Barai said.

During Thursdays hearing lasting some 13 hours, Rokitas office kept up a running commentary on its official Twitter account, with one post saying: When Bernard talked about the high priority she puts on legislation and speaking to the public, she did so at the expense of her own patient. This shows where her priorities are as an activist rather than a doctor.

Bernard objected to Voight saying her choice to publicly discuss the case led to the misconduct allegations.

I think if the attorney general, Todd Rokita, had not chosen to make this his political stunt we wouldnt be here today, Bernard said.

Lawyers for the attorney generals office repeatedly raised questions about whether the policy of Bernards employer, Indiana University Health, to report suspected child abuse to authorities in the state where the abuse occurred complied with Indiana law. Officials of IU Health, which is the states largest hospital system, testified that the Indiana Department of Child Services has never objected to the hospital policy.

The Indiana board with five doctors and one attorney present who were appointed or reappointed by Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb had wide latitude under state law allowing it to issue reprimand letters or suspend, revoke or place on probation a doctors license.

Ohios law imposing a near-ban on abortion was in effect for about two months, before being put on hold as a lawsuit against it plays out. Indianas Republican-dominated Legislature approved a statewide abortion ban weeks after the Ohio girls case drew attention, but abortions have continued to be permitted in the state while awaiting an Indiana Supreme Court decision on the bans constitutionality.

Bernard unsuccessfully tried to block Rokitas investigation last fall, although an Indianapolis judge wrote that Rokita made clearly unlawful breaches of state confidentiality laws with his public comments about investigating the doctor before filing the medical licensing complaint against her.